Bitcoin Price Holding $440

May 3, 2016 17:37 UTC

Bitcoin price remains above $440 and is testing $450 at the time of writing. A narrowing range of price action implies a break-out is building up steam.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC

OKCoin BTC/USD 1-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

Price made a low at $440 yesterday and is currently engaged in an upward correction that has pushed toward $450 in most BTC/USD charts.

Our dynamic stop-loss was triggered a earlier, and xbt.social members who closed their position should also set funds allocation to 50:50 (BTC vs fiat). Another sell signal should accompany the next wave down – if the market will decline further – and the outcome seems likely.

The 1-hour chart shows price in the middle of an apparent triangle formation. If the bulls buy price higher then there should be a reaction and reversal at the triangle’s upper trendline near $450 in the above OKCoin Spot chart. Bitstamp price has already pushed to this upper trendline in its chart. A push above the trendline – and the 200MA (red), especially – seems unlikely now, but it would alter our bearish outlook over the short-term.

The 1-hour stochastics (top) are grouping in overbought territory and RSI is forming reverse divergence to a previous swing high (magenta annotation). If the market sells price down then slicing through $441 (location of the lower triangle trendline) should open decline to $434, the most recent decline low. $410 is a secondary target.

If you have not closed your sell trade based on the xbt.social dynamic stop-loss, then you should retain your initial entry stop-loss at $5 above your entry level. Any price movement higher than that will imply some bullish tricks. The 4-hour chart looks strongly bearish, but price is currently above the 1-day 20MA, so this is still a transition time in the chart during which shenanigans can happen.

Summary

Bitcoin price is forming a contracting triangle pattern from the recent low. $440 has provided support to the most recent declining wave and price is currently testing the upper triangle trendline. Price may spend more time consolidating inside the triangle’s confines, but a break out of this area prior to us seeing five touch points on its sides, will imply a larger wave in the direction of the break-out. Advance is currently capped at $470, but decline has room to move as far as the low $400s.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

What do readers think? Please comment below.

This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3-hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code CCN29.

Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.

Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

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@venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.

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