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Bitcoin Price Decline Will Persist until Mid-2019: Crypto Analyst Willy Woo

Last Updated March 4, 2021 3:10 PM
Josiah Wilmoth
Last Updated March 4, 2021 3:10 PM

When the bitcoin price flatlined near $6,500 in mid-October, many crypto analysts predicted that the bears had finally become winded following a market downturn that has persisted for nearly a year and that the market could be primed for a December rally. However, technical analyst and trader Willy Woo does not believe that the flagship cryptocurrency’s immediate future is quite so rosy.

Writing on Twitter , Woo said that he does not expect the bitcoin price to find a floor until the second quarter of 2019, meaning that the market could face another seven months of downward pressure before conditions improve.

bitcoin price coinbase
BTC/USD | Coinbase

In addition to fundamental indicators such as the entrance of high-profile institutions into the cryptocurrency ecosystem, short-term bulls had pointed to a variety of technical data points to justify their optimistic outlook, including a marked increase in bitcoin’s transaction rate and steady average daily trading volume. Woo, on the other hand, cited several proprietary technical indicators that paint a somewhat darker picture, at least in the near-term.

For instance, Woo noted that NVTS — that is, Bitcoin network valuation divided by transaction value — has broken below its support level, which he said is a classic sell signal. Moreover, he said that Bitcoin Network Momentum (BNM) has yet to ramp up, which one would expect to see ahead of a bull cycle.

willy woo bitcoin price
Source: Willy Woo/Twitter 

That’s not to say that the bitcoin price doesn’t have room to rise over the very short-term, but Woo said that it’s unlikely the cryptocurrency will break above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) since these moves have historically signified a shift from bear market to bull.

“If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200 day moving average is the upper band of the move. This is ~$7k right now,” he wrote on Tuesday. “Remember if price goes above the 200DMA, in the history of BTCUSD’s 8 year trade history, it’s been a reliable indicator of bear to bull transitions. It’s too early to transition out of the bear.

As of the time of writing, bitcoin was priced at $6,307 on Coinbase, up from an intraday low of $6,252. The overall cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, had a cumulative valuation of $212 billion.

Featured Image from Shutterstock. Charts from TradingView .