Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner, Morgan Creek Digital Assets has predicted that bitcoin could fall as low as $3,000 in a complete turnaround from one of the market’s most bullish positions.
In a post, Pompliano stated that his January prediction of a $50,000 year-end bitcoin price was wide of the mark by as much as four years.
In July, CCN.com reported that Morgan Capital Management founder Mark Yusco predicted a bitcoin year-end price of $25,000, followed by a subsequent run culminating in a price exceeding $500,000 by 2024.
Pompliano however, says that after examining more data, this optimistic position has been reviewed.
“Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer — each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010-2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011-2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013-2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete.”
According to Pompliano, an extrapolation of this trend shows that bitcoin is unlikely to hit another all-time high until the middle of 2023, more than 2,000 days after the previous all-time high.
Measuring historical bear market data shows that the first bear market lasted for about 160 days in 2011, with the next one lasting 400 days between 2013 and 2014. Using that data to construct a trend Pompliano says, the current bear market is likely to go on for about 650 days.
In the event that this happens, what that would for crypto markets is that a full recovery from negative price movements is not due until the 3rd quarter of 2019, which is substantially longer than what most market participants presently anticipate.
According to Pompliano, this could mean a high level of “pain and discomfort” for investors.
Referencing his earlier predictions he says:
“It is never fun to admit that you were wrong about something you said publicly. However, it is important to constantly test your own assumptions and beliefs. As I’ve tested myself over the last few weeks, it became obvious that I needed to gather better data and rebuild the prediction model.”
In Pompliano’s view, a review of available data suggests a number of unpleasant outcomes, notably that the price of bitcoin is more likely to hit $3,000 in the short term than anywhere near $10,000, which means that there is still a price decline of roughly 50% ahead.
Concluding, Pompliano reiterated that he still believes bitcoin will hit $50,000, albeit in 2022 or 2023. His advice to investors is to buckle up and prepare for the worst while doing their own research in the interim.
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Last modified: March 4, 2021 3:34 PM