Bitcoin Price Analysis: Decision Time

February 12, 2016

Bitcoin price was traded to the prevailing resistance ceiling again, today. This time, it seemed the bulls must challenge an additional obstacle, namely the 4-hour 200MA.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

OKCoin BTC/CNY Spot 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

A clue that the current sideways stint is a correction can be gleaned from the substructure of the waves labeled A,B,C and D. Each wave consists of three subwaves, that can be labeled ‘abc’ and the ‘c’ wave is impulsive in each case – indicating the direction of the correction.

Of course, this structural analysis can equally be applied to advancing waves in the bitcoin chart, but a critical component is lacking in the current chart, namely “higher highs”.

Price has no trouble rebounding from the lows but is not advancing beyond the resistance ceiling near $380 and 2620CNY (in this OKCoin BTC/CNY Spot chart).

The red 4-hour 200MA has begun dipping below the level of resistance, thereby, forcing the market to choose a direction. If the bulls cannot mount the 200MA then the only remaining option is down.

However bearish the chart looks, a push above the 200MA will change matters quickly and decisively. In this case, there will be good reason for seeking a long opportunity to the highs of December.

We don’t have clear signaling, as has been the case during this entire correction, so its truly best to sit out and wait for an obvious, well-signaled opportunity.


The decline target remains at the previous low near $365 and 2450 CNY. If the market trades yet another wave to the upside and fails to breach the resistance ceiling, then we will have an indication that trend will turn back down. Breaking above the 4-hour 200MA is the key to advance. Corrective phases can be frustrating, and the key is to remain out of the market and to wait for a clear trend to signal.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.