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As Tide Turns Against Huawei, This Dow 30 Stock Could Be the Big Winner

Last Updated September 25, 2020 8:41 PM
Andrew Packer
Last Updated September 25, 2020 8:41 PM
  • The U.K. banned Chinese tech giant Huawei from its 5G network.
  • While the move is a political boon, there are few companies that can fill the gap.
  • Dow Jones component Cisco could benefit from the Huawei backlash if they move aggressively.

The United Kingdom announced that it would ban any equipment created by Chinese firm Huawei  as it unrolls its 5G network. This is a mammoth shift from back in January when it gave Huawei a “limited” foothold in the country’s 5G future – but a foothold nonetheless.

There have long been fears that Huawei equipment in Western nations would be used as an espionage tool. With the discovery of backdoors in place for over a decade back in February , it’s clear that using Huawei equipment poses a national security danger.

Huawei Backlash Creates a Telecom Equipment Vacuum

While the decision to ban Huawei equipment came out of the U.K., analysts expect the United States will continue to push for more Western nations to blacklist the Chinese tech company.

The U.S. has already banned Huawei tech on national security grounds.

There’s an irony in that: The United States has few alternatives for equipment providers.  Policymakers may be unwittingly creating trouble for themselves later on.

Telecom equipment market share
With Huawei dominating the telecom equipment market, creating robust networks without invasive backdoors has become a challenge. | Source: Financial Times 

Huawei currently has 28% of the telecom equipment market share globally, making it the largest player in the space.

Robert Mayer, senior vice president of cybersecurity at US Telecom, told the Financial Times that,

The cost of replacing an entity on the scale of Huawei would be prohibitive.

There are a few European companies that have tried to paint themselves as trustworthy alternatives, such as Nokia and Ericsson .

In the U.S., there aren’t any companies realistically positioned to dominate the telecom equipment space. But with a little retooling, one Dow 30 company could fill the gap.

Could This Dow Jones Stock Be the Big Winner?

The potential winner? Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO).

In the past, Cisco has generally focused on wired technology like routers, finding that wireless products are more difficult for them and have a longer development horizon. That may be changing.

cisco stock, dow jones members
Will Dow 30 member Cisco be the big winner in the pivot against Huawei? | Source: Yahoo Finance 

The increase of its recurring-revenue services businesses and a broader suite of services in recent years have allowed the Dow Jones component to hold up well, even beating earnings expectations in the first quarter.

As RBC Capital Markets analyst Robert Muller stated,  

While we expect Enterprise weakness from an uncertain macro, we believe that CSCO is positioned well for the long run and could emerge from the pandemic relatively stronger.

There have already been rumors that the government could encourage Cisco to make a splashy acquisition  to bolster its 5G prospects.

If Cisco does fill the vacuum left by Huawei, it would be a particularly sweet victory.

The router manufacturer was one of the Chinese company’s many victims of intellectual property theft. In 2003, the firm admitted to copying some code used in Cisco routers . That was not the last time.

If the United States is serious about getting away from Huawei’s invasive technologies, a government investment program will likely be needed to get the job done quickly.

Should that kind of “Manhattan Project ” be undertaken, Cisco will likely find itself in a position to grab substantial market share from Huawei and turn the tables on a company that once stole its intellectual property.

Disclaimer: This article represents the author’s opinion and should not be considered investment or trading advice from CCN.com. Unless otherwise noted, the author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.