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Pyth Network Retraced from All-Time High — Where Will PYTH End 2023?

Last Updated November 29, 2023 4:00 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated November 29, 2023 4:00 PM

Key Takeaways

  • The price of PYTH has soared on its release day but quickly slowed down.
  • The first bull phase correction might have already ended.
  • Two scenarios are in play, but both point out further growth in the short term

The Pyth Network is a prominent first-party oracle providing over 300 real-time price feeds for asset classes like digital assets, equities, ETFs, FX, and commodities. It features contributions from leading exchanges, market makers, and financial services providers, who supply proprietary price data for on-chain aggregation and distribution. 

The network’s unique pull oracle design allows applications to access the latest prices on their native blockchains easily. 

Since its inception, the Pyth Network has accumulated over $1B in total value, supported DeFi protocols with over $70B in trading volume, and has been integrated into more than 200 applications. 

It operates by having data providers submit price information, which is then aggregated by Pyth’s Oracle program into a single price and confidence interval, subsequently utilized by dApps on their respective blockchains.

Its PYTH token has soared by 826% since its market release on November 20, measured to its all-time high only four days later. The majority of the rise occurred on its first day, after which there was a steady rise, followed by a 30% correction. 

Has it reached its highest point this year already, or will we see further uptrend continuation of the price of PYTH? 

PYTH Price Analysis 

Considering the limited price history, we are looking at the 15-minute chart of PYTH. The first part – a major pump is discarded as it is just a quick price discovery after the token release. A minor consolidation followed between $0.37 and $0.28, ending on November 21. 

PYTH in a minor downtrend
Breakout seen from the ascending support

From there, the first real uptrend began and moved to the upside in a five-wave manner. Upon reaching its peak, we saw the first correction that pushed the price back to 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.39. This Fib level is the typical ending point of the first correction according to the Elliott Wave theory and implies further price growth above its last high.

However, the uptrend that followed didn’t instill confidence. We saw a slow incline, but from its high of only $0.45, the price started decreasing again and is now below its ascending support level, which is a sign of caution. 

This brings two scenarios into play. 

Bullish Case 

In this scenario, the first two moves are the sub-wave of the higher degree five-wave impulse, with wave 3 already developing its second sub-wave. If this is true, the price is now headed for a major pump on its wave 3 with a price target set at the optimal Fibonacci extension level of 1.618 at $0.81.

PYTH bullish case
A bullish scenario implies an immediate price pump

This looks improbable but possible, as this would be a 75% increase from the current levels. After its wave 4 consolidation, another high would be expected, reaching just below $1. 

The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price continues to move further down on the current downtrend and makes a lower low than $0.40. 

Bearish Case 

The picture could be bullish in the short term in this bearish scenario. As the price recovered to only 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high to its November 27 low, it is a shallow recovery. 

PYTH bearish case
The slow incline in this scenario to $0.50

Since, according to this count, the higher degree correction after the all-time high hasn’t ended, we are seeing its mid-wave that could have more potential to the upside before completion. The price could go as high as $0.50 but only to make a downturn and be sent into a lower low than November 27. 

In that case, its likely ending point would be the resistance level of the first consolidation at around $0.37.  Only after this lower low is made would we see the start of the larger ascending move as wave 3 per our bullish scenario. 

Conclusion 

PYTH price history has just started, and with a limited date, it is unreliable for projecting further price movements. However, by looking at the 15-minute chart, we can see an overlap in two potential scenarios. 

Both indicate that the price is to continue increasing in the short term and has the potential to reach at least $0.50. If it continues growing from there, the likelihood of the bullish scenario will increase and could mean that its price is headed to an all-time high. 

However, in both cases, if the price continues its current downward movement past the $0.40 area, we will invalidate these possibilities and wait for the current decline to end before we can project future upside targets. 

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

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