XRP Price Forms Head and Shoulders Pattern — Possible Reversal Ahead

Key Takeaways

• XRP is creating the first lower highs since November 2024.
• The price is trading inside a head and shoulders pattern.
• Will XRP break down from this pattern, ending its consolidation?
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The XRP price surged over 300% to the end of 2024, reaching its cycle high of $3.40 in January 2025.

While the price fell afterward, Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve on March 2 caused a significant XRP price surge. XRP was the second biggest beneficiary, trailing only ADA.

Despite the initial surge, the price has retraced most of its gains and risks a breakdown from a head and shoulders pattern.

The question now is whether XRP can regain its momentum or if it will break down and risk a deeper correction.

XRP Price Creates Lower High

The weekly time frame XRP chart shows that the price has fallen since its cycle high of $3.40 in January. After a significant upward movement last week, the XRP price resumed its descent, creating a lower high (red icon).

If it holds, it will be the first lower high since the upward movement became rapid in November 2024. The decline also confirms that the cycle high was a deviation above the $2.85 resistance area, since the price now trades below it.

Technical indicators also show decisive weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has generated a bearish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross (black circle).

Therefore, a downward movement toward the range low is the most likely possibility.

XRP’s Bearish Pattern

The daily time frame chart also gives a bearish XRP outlook because of a head-and-shoulders pattern. In this pattern, the March 2 high marked the top of the right shoulder, which XRP is currently finishing.

A breakdown below the neckline at $2.20 will confirm a breakdown has materialized. A downward movement that travels the entire pattern’s height would take the XRP price between $1 and $1.05, an area created by a Fibonacci and horizontal support level.

This would be a 55% decline from the current price.

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Technical indicators lean bearish. The bearish divergence trend line (orange) rejected the RSI, which is now at 50. The MACD trades below its own bearish divergence trend line and is negative.

Therefore, an eventual breakdown is the most likely future outlook. The wave count agrees with this reading, though it gives a slightly higher target of $1.40, found by giving wave C the same length as wave A.

Moving above the right shoulder high of $3.03 will invalidate the bearish pattern and take the XRP price to new highs. This currently seems unlikely.

XRP Breakdown Ahead

The XRP price fell sharply on March 4, retracing the gains from Donald Trump’s crypto reserve announcement. A breakdown below $2.25 will confirm the bearish trend, taking XRP to at least $2.40.