Key Takeaways
XRP broke out from a three-year consolidation pattern in November 2024, increasing by a remarkable 600% afterward. The momentum carried over in 2025, leading to a high of $3.40 on Jan. 16.
While XRP seemed destined to reach a new all-time high, it could not sustain its upward movement and fell last week. Nevertheless, the price regained its footing by creating a bullish candlestick, rekindling optimism for another rally.
Positive Ripple news about securing over 50 Money Transmitter Licenses (MTL) across the U.S. likely aided the increase.
Can XRP capitalize on its progress and reach new highs, or has the rally run its course? Let’s examine the charts to find out.
The XRP price has increased since breaking out from a symmetrical triangle pattern on Jan. 8. The upward movement led to a new yearly high of $3.40 on Jan. 16, roughly 20% below the all-time high price of $3.84, reached in 2018.
The XRP price fell afterward, reaching a low of $2.65 on Jan. 27. However, the ensuing bounce has been impressive, creating a very long lower wick (white icon) and a bullish hammer candlestick.
Moreover, XRP validated the previous resistance of $2.70 as support, paving the way for bullish continuation.
Technical indicators are showing weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green) and are decreasing. Such divergences often transpire near the local or absolute top.
The XRP price action and technical indicators contradict each other. While the price action supports continuing the increase to at least another high, technical indicators suggest a top has been reached. So, looking at the wave count can help break the deadlock.
The wave count toes the line between the price action and indicator readings. The most likely count suggests that XRP is in the fifth and final wave (white) of an upward movement that started in July 2024.
The black sub-wave count shows that the price has just started its fifth and final sub-wave.
Therefore, XRP is now in the final portion of its long-term increase, after which a correction is likely.
The first target for the top of this upward movement is $3.55. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement creates this target, which aligns perfectly with the wave and sub-wave counts.
In case of a fifth wave extension, the XRP price can reach a high of $4.58. The 2.61 external Fibonacci retracement creates this target, which would be a new all-time high.
Since the upward movement has transpired for over seven months, a lengthy correction can occur after the rally is over, with XRP potentially returning to its fourth-wave territory near $2.
Despite XRP’s impressive recovery, indicator readings and the wave count predict that upward movement is nearing its end.
While the XRP price can reach a high of $3.55 and possibly $4.58, a lengthy correction is just around the corner.