The move followed a broader risk-on tone, but several “supply walls” still stand between XRP and a clean run toward $2.88.
First, macro data helped. The December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that core CPI was at 2.6%, slightly below expectations, while headline inflation remained near 2.7%.
This development prompted traders to price in a more favorable rate as prices increase. As it stands, XRP’s price looks ready to trade higher.
But it must breach one key level before it surges. Here is the why, how, and everything surrounding the XRP CPI impact.
XRP Supply Walls Are the Problem
At the time of writing, XRP’s price trades near $2.11 on the 4-hour chart, following a sharp spike in early January. However, a quick rejection from the mid-2.30s stalled the move.
Since then, the price has compressed, and the structure shows lower highs that press down into a repeatedly defended base, resembling a descending triangle or a tight consolidation.
However, things changed yesterday as the altcoin broke out of the upper trendline of the wedge. This occurred following the release of the CPI inflation data for December.
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Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed headline CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, unchanged from November and in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, core CPI eased to 2.6%, slightly below the market forecast of 2.7%
The chart highlights two key zones since the CPI outcome as XRP’s price jumped. Resistance sits around 2.30 and $2.33, where the prior rally failed, and selling took control.
Support sits around 2.02 and 2.05, where buyers have held the line several times. If XRP’s price continues to maintain that support and regains the 2.10 area with follow-through, a push back toward 2.30 becomes more likely.
However, if the price breaks and holds below $2.05, the compression resolves lower and opens up room again under $ 2.
Momentum leans bullish but warns of fatigue. As shown below, the Money Flow Index (MFI) around 76 indicates strong inflows and near-overbought conditions.
In this case, pullbacks can occur quickly. At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has turned positive, with rising green bars, which supports rebuilding upside momentum.
However, XRP’s price still needs to confirm this with a hold and breakout.
Regulation, Transaction Is Another Story
Besides that, the regulation added fuel. A draft market-structure push tied to the CLARITY Act has revived optimism that some top cryptocurrencies, including XRP, could receive clearer “non-security” treatment.
That narrative matters because it reduces headline risk and can bring sidelined capital back into the market.
Meanwhile, Ripple also picked up momentum abroad.
Two days ago, reports indicate that the firm has received key approvals from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to expand its payments footprint, which adds another credibility boost to XRP’s long-term adoption.
Still, the breakout path remains unclear. Even with improving sentiment, XRP’s price typically requires sustained volume to clear the overhead supply before it can credibly target $2.88.
However, as of this writing, transaction volume is below $60 million. For XRP to break out clearly, the volume needs to be significantly higher than this.
Hence, the altcoin will likely stall before the run beyond the next resistance.
XRP Price Forecast: 2.30 Remains the Real Battlefield
On the daily chart, XRP trades near 2.12 and remains in a broader corrective phase that started after the breakdown in October.
The price continues to respect a clear descending trendline, indicating that sellers still control rallies, despite occasional bounces.
Furthermore, the recent XRP push higher from the CPI news stalled quickly, reinforcing the idea that upside attempts remain corrective rather than impulsive.
Fibonacci levels frame the structure well. The 0.382 retracement, near 2.31, and the 0.5 level, around 2.48, continue to hold back XRP’s price.
However, the 0.618 level, near 2.65, marks the upper boundary of a meaningful recovery.
As long as XRP’s price stays below the 0.382 zone, the market structure remains bearish on the daily timeframe.
The 0.236 area around the current price has become a short-term balance zone rather than a strong support level.
In addition, volume increased on the recent bounce but faded quickly, suggesting short covering rather than sustained demand.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) histogram has turned positive, which signals improving momentum. Yet, it still lacks the strength seen during prior bullish moves.
At the same time, holder sentiment remains negative, indicating that broader confidence has not fully recovered.
Overall, the chart suggests that the impact of the CPI on XRP price is stabilizing but not reversing.
A daily close above $2.31 would be needed to weaken the bearish structure and open the path toward higher retracement levels, such as $2.88.
Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, and the risk of another rotation lower remains present.
