Silver Above $118: What the Data Says About Supply Bank Claims, and Why Crypto Is Lagging
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Key Takeaways
Silver surged to a new all-time high amid Fed turmoil and supply shocks.
China’s export curbs and a weaker dollar intensified buying pressure.
Despite overbought signals, the broader trend remains upward.
Silver (XAG) has not stopped running to a new record high, and obviously, crypto can’t keep up.
On Monday, Jan. 12, the precious metal rallied to a new all-time high of $86.22. Around the same period, the Bitcoin (BTC) price and most altcoins in the top 10 struggled to record gains.
However, Silver’s price increased by 6% on the same days. This rally marks a staggering 180% year-over-year increase.
But what else drove the white metal’s market value higher? Let’s find out and analyze what’s next for the price.
Why Is Silver Rising?
According to CCN’s findings, a perfect storm of institutional chaos at the Federal Reserve and a physical supply crunch has driven the price of Silver higher.
Now, let’s break it down:
Monday’s parabolic surge began with a late-Sunday shock as reports emerged that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation by the Department of Justice.
The alleged probe, tied to claims of “excessive spending” on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, quickly turned into a bigger market story.
As that risk hit headlines, investors rotated out of the U.S. dollar and shaky risk assets.
Gold benefited immediately and pushed up to $4,600. Silver followed, but it moved even faster. Because silver trades in a smaller and more volatile market, the same wave of demand created a significantly larger reaction.
China’s export curbs added the supply shock that turned a sentiment-driven rally into a full squeeze. Starting Jan. 1, 2026, Beijing rolled out stricter silver export licensing.
That restriction showed up quickly in pricing. Silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange reportedly surged to a dollar-equivalent value of nearly $86, creating a wide arbitrage gap versus Western benchmarks.
Another reason for the rise in silver’s price is the weak US dollar. Because silver is priced in U.S. dollars on global markets, a weaker dollar directly boosts its appeal abroad.
Recently, the dollar fell by 0.6% again. When the dollar falls, silver becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. For investors in Europe or Asia, a stronger Euro or Yen means they can purchase more ounces of silver with the same amount of local currency.
That pricing effect lifts global demand and pushes prices higher. Unlike gold, silver also plays a critical industrial role, which ties its demand to real economic activity. As a result, silver benefits from the development.
What Analysts Are Saying
At the time of writing, silver has eased slightly to $84.88 per ounce. However, some analysts see the pullback as constructive rather than bearish.
One of them is Sunil Reddy, who argues that the retracement looks healthy. In his view, the pause could help reset momentum and set the stage for another breakout once buying pressure returns.
“The recent correction in silver is eerily similar to the Oct–Nov correction. Both pulled back to retest the channel they previously broke out of, and both resolved higher,” The analyst posted on X.
In addition, he mentioned that the metal might experience a lower volume soon, but it does not mean the 2026 rally is over.
“In both cases, the second leg down came with lower volume, and both trapped participants into calling a top too early. That trap is now complete, and we are in the acceleration phase,” Reddy added.
As expected, Economist Peter Schiff weighed in on the matter. According to him, market observers might need to get in before the next leg up.
“Silver is up over $5.50, trading above $85 for the first time ever. How much higher will you let precious metals rise before you buy?” Schiff wrote.
Meanwhile, unlike others, some analysts have warned that the spike in Silver’s price could be a trap—for instance, Mario Nawfal, investor and founder of the IBC Group, noted that industrial demand accounts for only 20% of the demand.
Furthermore, he noted that most of it could be panic buying, likening it to the 2008 financial crisis.
“This is panic buying disguised as diversification. Silver’s the poor man’s apocalypse hedge. Industrial demand’s real too – solar panels, electronics, medical devices all need silver. But that explains maybe 20% of this move,” Nawfal opined.
Silver Technical Analysis: Higher Forecast
On the daily chart, silver is trading within an ascending parallel channel, which maintains the broader trend as bullish.
The structure shows support near $70.54 and resistance around $86.75, indicating that the price is still hovering near the upper boundary.
At the same time, the RSI signals overbought conditions. That usually increases the odds of a pullback, especially after a sharp run. If sellers step in, silver could retrace toward $75.56 in the short term as the market cools off and resets momentum.
Still, the uptrend has a key support layer. Silver remains above the 20-period EMA, and with the 20 EMA (blue) sitting below the price, it can act as a cushion on dips.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
