XRP price could fall further, but an extended double-digit correction may not happen | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
XRP’s price is likely to end the month lower, following years of historical patterns.
Despite similarities to 2022, the realized price may prevent a double-digit correction.
The altcoin might not slide as low as some market observers expect — here are the reasons.
XRP isn’t getting out of crypto winter anytime soon.
Trading at $1.41, down 63% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, the altcoin is trapped in a descending channel that has remained intact amid the crypto bear market.
But here’s the critical difference from 2022. This time, XRP’s price might not fall to $0.30.
Despite following the same warning signs that preceded 2022’s devastating 61% crash from $0.78 to $0.30, multiple structural factors now create support that didn’t exist during the last bear market.
In this analysis, CCN reveals the key levels to watch and what to expect from XRP’s price.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency token trades below all major moving averages.
Fundamentally, this isn’t consolidation. It’s a confirmed downtrend.
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According to Glassnode, XRP exhibits an asymmetric profit structure: recent buyers hold profitable positions, while long-term holders face losses.
This looks similar to the exact setup that triggered cascading selling in February 2022.
Furthermore, whale flow remains net negative, with large holders distributing rather than accumulating.
Only 40% of Ripple’s 300+ institutional partners use XRP for settlement, suggesting business growth doesn’t necessarily translate into demand for the crypto.
February historically delivers an average 3% loss for XRP, and 2026 is tracking worse, down over 30% in the first three weeks.
XRP Historical February Performance | Credit: CoinLore
While the altcoin might end the month with a negative return, CCN found out that XRP’s price might not crash as it did after the FTX contagion.
Realized Price, Historical Analysis Offers Hope
One reason for this prediction is the XRP realized price.
According to Glassnode, XRP’s realized price (the average price at which all coins last moved) has stabilized near $1.45.
That level is now acting as a structural reference point for the entire market.
Currently, XRP’s price is trading slightly below that zone, hovering between $1.38 and $1.42.
Historically, when the price dips under the realized price, the asset enters what many analysts call a “deep value” phase.
It doesn’t guarantee an immediate rally. However, it signals that the bulk of speculative pressure has already been flushed.
The last major example came in May 2022. During that period, XRP’s price traded beneath its realized price and went as low as $0.30 during the broader crypto collapse.
The result wasn’t a rebound. Instead, it marked the end of the freefall and the beginning of a prolonged accumulation phase.
The current data shows a similar stress event happening. On Feb. 22, XRP recorded nearly $1.93 billion in weekly realized losses (the largest spike since November 2022), quantifying capitulation.
When realized losses peak at that scale, it means weaker holders have exited. Still, retail sentiment remains in extreme panic territory,
With the price sitting near the average holder’s cost basis, it seems sellers are becoming exhausted.
Therefore, if history rhymes, XRP’s price may not rally immediately.
But the conditions for crucial support are forming rather than collapsing into a 2022-style extended crash.
Why XRP to $0.30 Won’t Happen This Time
Despite the bearish structure, XRP’s price has three critical support mechanisms that 2022 lacked:
First, ETF structural demand. XRP spot ETFs have accumulated $1.4 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025. Unlike 2022, when retail panic selling had no institutional bid, ETF demand creates a persistent buyer of last resort. This floor provides structural support around the $1.48 realized price level.
Second, whale accumulation during weakness. Wallets holding over 1 billion XRP have been steadily accumulating since early January 2026, growing holdings from 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP during the correction. In 2022, whales were sellers. In 2026, they’re buyers.
Third, the exchange supply has collapsed 57% from early 2025 levels. This suggests long-term holders are moving tokens into cold storage, reducing available sell-side liquidity. In 2022, exchange balances surged as holders rushed to exit.
XRP Price Prediction
On the daily timeframe, XRP’s price remains in a broader downtrend despite some early signs of stabilization.
As shown below, it is still trading within the long-term descending channel that began after the blow-off top near $3.60.
However, the cryptocurrency is holding well below the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $1.71. It is also beneath the 0.382 near $2.08, which means the larger structure is still technically bearish.
Furthermore, the recent selloff wicked XRP’s price into the $1.15 region, which aligns closely with the zero Fibonacci level and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
However, indicators are beginning to shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, with price printing a lower low.
This typically signals weakening downside momentum and supports the case for a bounce. With RSI near 40, there is room for an uptrend without being overbought.
At the same time, the Accumulation/Distribution Line continues trending upward, suggesting that underlying accumulation is occurring even as XRP’s price drifts lower.
In the near term, holding above the $1.30 to $1.35 zone could keep the altcoin stable, with $1.50 as the first meaningful test.
As a result, the cryptocurrency’s market value might drop to as low as $0.30.
However, until XRP reclaims and holds above $1.70 on strong volume, any upside should still be considered counter-trend within a broader bearish structure.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
