Key Takeaways
The price of TRUMP has been in a strong downtrend, forming a descending triangle structure.
The broader correction appears to be in its final stages, with the Elliott Wave count suggesting a potential wave (c) conclusion near the lower boundary of the triangle.
TRUMP’s 4-hour chart reveals a prolonged correction since its peak from Jan. 19. at $77.57, with price action forming a descending triangle.
The Elliott Wave count indicates that TRUMP is in the final phase of a corrective WXY pattern, with wave Y now reaching key support at $14.55.
A Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high of $77.57 to the local low provides significant levels, with the 0.786 retracement at $28.04 and 0.618 at $38.63 as potential recovery targets.
However, the price remains suppressed beneath these levels, suggesting that bearish pressure is still dominant.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of exhaustion, forming a bullish divergence near oversold levels. This divergence suggests a weakening bearish momentum, which often precedes a reversal.
The price action near the triangle’s lower boundary could signal the completion of wave Y, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
TRUMP must reclaim the descending trendline resistance, currently near $14.55, for a confirmed reversal. Failure to hold above this level could lead to an extended corrective phase, potentially testing lower levels.
On the 1-hour chart, TRUMP is within the final leg of an internal five-wave decline, forming wave (c) of a broader correction.
The chart structure suggests that wave (v) is in progress, with a projected downside target near $10, aligning with the descending triangle’s lower boundary.
If the price completes wave (v) within this zone, a bullish reversal could follow, driven by RSI divergence and triangle support.
A breakout above $14.55 would be the first confirmation of a trend reversal, potentially triggering a rally towards $18, where previous resistance and Fibonacci retracements align.
If TRUMP fails to hold the $10 region and breaks down further, the next critical support would be around $8, which is its starting point.
However, given the oversold conditions on the RSI, a short-term bounce remains the higher probability scenario.
In summary, the price is approaching a decision point: successfully defending the triangle’s lower boundary could spark a sharp recovery. At the same time, a breakdown would signal an extended bearish continuation.