XLM Price Tests Make-or-Break Level After Year-Long Downtrend

Stellar faces a critical moment as XLM hovers directly above one of its most crucial long-term support levels.

After nearly a year of declining price action and repeated failures at resistance levels, traders are closely watching to see whether Stellar can hold $0.235, or if a major breakdown is imminent.

This XLM price analysis breaks down the key levels and what to expect next.

XLM Price Analysis

The weekly chart indicates that XLM has been falling under a diagonal resistance since November 2024.

The most recent touch of the trend line was in August (red icon).

Since then, the breakdown accelerated, taking the XLM price down to the $0.235 support area.

This is a critical support area that has been in place since November 2024.

A breakdown below will confirm that the long-term trend remains bearish.

If that happens, the XLM price risks another plunge to new lows.

Will XLM Break Down?

Momentum indicators support the breakdown:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50.
• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative.

Since there is no bullish divergence in place, an eventual breakdown is likely.

However, the readings are from the weekly chart.

As a result, the XLM price may bounce in the short-term before eventually breaking down.

Corrective XLM Bounce

A look at the short-term two-hour time frame shows that XLM’s bounce is contained inside an ascending parallel channel.

As a result, it is unlikely to be the start of a new impulse.

Rather, it is likely to be a correction that eventually leads to a breakdown.

The fact that XLM trades in the channel’s lower portion increases the likelihood of a breakdown.

Once that happens, the price of XLM will also break down from the $0.235 long-term support area.

As a result, a massive price decline could follow.

Critical Support Level

XLM sits at one of the most important levels in its multi-year price history.

While short-term bounces are possible, the bigger trend remains firmly bearish unless Stellar reclaims key resistance levels.

A decisive close below $0.235 would confirm the next leg down, while defending this zone would give bulls one final chance to build a reversal base.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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