Stellar (XLM) Price Rebounds From Key Support — Can Bulls Prevent a Bigger Breakdown?

Stellar’s recent bounce has sparked fresh interest among traders, especially as the market looks for signs of recovery.

Yet despite short-term optimism, the broader XLM price analysis still shows a fragile structure that could collapse if buyers fail to defend a key support zone.

So is Stellar ready to break out, or is this just a temporary pause before another leg down?

Let’s examine the charts.

XLM Price Analysis

XLM has fallen under a diagonal resistance trend line since December 2024.

More recently, the trend line caused a rejection in August (red icon), accelerating the decline.

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On Oct. 10, XLM crashed by 60% in a single day, briefly hitting a low of $0.160.

However, it bounced shortly afterward, creating a massive long lower wick (green icon).

The wick was critical since it prevented a breakdown from the long-term horizontal support at $0.230.

As a result, bulls still have hope as long as the support area holds.

However, a breakdown below this area could trigger a massive XLM price crash.

Will XLM Break Down?

Momentum indicators suggest a breakdown awaits.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50.
• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative.

Both trend downward, and neither has generated any bearish divergence.

When combined with the price action, these signs suggest that a breakdown is likely.

Once that happens, the charts predict a downside of another 45%, taking the XLM price down to $0.140.

XLM Price Prediction

While the long-term chart is bearish, the daily one offers hope for a reversal.

The primary reason for this prediction is that XLM is currently trading within a descending parallel channel.

These channels usually contain corrective movements.

Hence, the presence of one suggests that the XLM’s price could break out from it.

Today, XLM is in the channel’s upper portion, making an eventual breakout more likely.

However, until that happens, the trend of lower lower and lower highs remains.

Traders are closely watching the channel’s resistance trend line, since a breakout from that could trigger a significant bounce.

Here’s What’s Next

The XLM chart shows a rare mix of conflicting signals:

A short-term bullish structure is present within a channel, but a long-term breakdown risk exists if $0.230 gives way.

The decisive moment will be a test of the channel resistance and the horizontal support.

Whichever level breaks first will determine Stellar’s next major trend — either a sharp relief rally or a deeper crash.

For now, the XLM price analysis suggests that traders should remain cautious but alert, as a significant move is forthcoming.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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