Key Takeaways
Stellar (XLM) narrowly avoided a major breakdown in October, bouncing off the key $0.160 support level after forming a long lower wick on the chart.
While bulls managed to defend that price floor, momentum has since faded, leaving traders to wonder if another leg down is on the way.
With $0.160 now the critical line separating stability from another slide, all eyes are on whether XLM can hold its ground into year-end.
After reaching a cycle high of $0.64 in November, XLM has been stuck in a prolonged downtrend, tracing a descending resistance line that has capped every rebound since.
Multiple rejection attempts, the latest in August 2025, only accelerated the sell-off, with the token repeatedly posting lower highs before tumbling in October.
Following the drop, XLM found temporary relief at $0.160, where a sharp bounce formed a long lower wick (green icon) that stopped the decline from deepening below $0.230.
However, that recovery has since lost steam.
The token failed to build sustained momentum and now hovers once again near the $0.230 zone, testing whether buyers still have the conviction to hold the line.

In addition to the bearish price action, momentum indicators are also signaling a bearish trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crashed below 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) fell below 0 (black circles).
Both are decisive bearish signs, suggesting the XLM price prediction is bearish and a breakdown is inevitable.
Though the weekly chart is bearish, daily price action suggests a bullish XLM reversal is possible.
The primary reason for this is that the price of XLM has been trading within a descending parallel channel since its cycle high.
XLM has bounced from the channel’s trend line and now approaches the midline.

Despite the bounce, neither the RSI nor MACD showed bullish divergences to validate the rally.
Additionally, XLM is trading in the lower portion of the channel.
Until it clears this level and the $0.320 horizontal area, it will be unlikely to create a bullish trend reversal.
The direction of Stellar’s trend remains bearish as long as the price does not break out from its descending parallel channel.