Key Takeaways
Arguably the most unsettling period of the year, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin has not been spared from the broader market crash. Launched ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, TRUMP has plunged nearly ten times from its all-time high.
On Jan. 19, the TRUMP memecoin price reached a peak of $73.43. Today, it’s down to just $7.73 as Donald Trump holds firm on sweeping tariffs across multiple countries.
What’s more alarming is the growing doubt that relief is on the horizon. As several market indicators suggest, TRUMP’s price is unlikely to recover as long as the current macroeconomic condition remains the same.
On the daily chart, TRUMP’s price had shown readiness to form a U-shaped recovery. But the memecoin eventually lost the plot as it keeps trading below the falling trendline.
Based on the same chart, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reading has dropped to the negative region. The AO is a technical indicator that measures momentum by comparing historic price movements to recent ones.
When the AO is positive, momentum is bullish, and the price is likely to increase. But in this case, the AO is below the zero signal line, indicating bearish momentum.
Should this trend continue, the TRUMP memecoin price is unlikely to recover. Similar to the signs shown by the AO, the Money Flow Index (MFI) reading also collapsed.
As seen above, the MFI, which tracks the level of buying and selling pressure, has fallen to 17.53. This rating means that TRUMP is oversold. However, a bullish reversal might be unlikely due to the dearth of volume and accumulation.
According to Santiment data, the memecoin’s volume followed the same direction as the price. For instance, after TRUMP’s price surpassed $75 in January, the volume climbed above $52 billion.
Today, the memecoin’s value is $7.65, and the volume is less than $1 billion. This decline in volume indicates falling interest in the cryptocurrency.
If this remains the same, the TRUMP memecoin price might continue to struggle and probably inch closer to its launch price.
Looking at its short-term outlook, TRUMP has consistently fallen below key support levels. Currently, the price is below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in blue.
Likewise, the memecoin has also fallen below the 20 EMA (yellow). This decline below the EMAs indicates a bearish trend. Should the TRUMP memecoin price fail to surge above these levels, then an extended decline could be next.
In that case, the cryptocurrency’s value might drop below $6. On the contrary, if the token rises above these indicators, the trend might change.
Should that be the case, TRUMP might rally to $17.05 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.