Arguably the most unsettling period of the year, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin has not been spared from the broader market crash. Launched ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, TRUMP has plunged nearly ten times from its all-time high.
On Jan. 19, the TRUMP memecoin price reached a peak of $73.43. Today, it’s down to just $7.73 as Donald Trump holds firm on sweeping tariffs across multiple countries.
What’s more alarming is the growing doubt that relief is on the horizon. As several market indicators suggest, TRUMP’s price is unlikely to recover as long as the current macroeconomic condition remains the same.
On the daily chart, TRUMP’s price had shown readiness to form a U-shaped recovery. But the memecoin eventually lost the plot as it keeps trading below the falling trendline.
Based on the same chart, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reading has dropped to the negative region. The AO is a technical indicator that measures momentum by comparing historic price movements to recent ones.
When the AO is positive, momentum is bullish, and the price is likely to increase. But in this case, the AO is below the zero signal line, indicating bearish momentum.
Should this trend continue, the TRUMP memecoin price is unlikely to recover. Similar to the signs shown by the AO, the Money Flow Index (MFI) reading also collapsed.
As seen above, the MFI, which tracks the level of buying and selling pressure, has fallen to 17.53. This rating means that TRUMP is oversold. However, a bullish reversal might be unlikely due to the dearth of volume and accumulation.
According to Santiment data, the memecoin’s volume followed the same direction as the price. For instance, after TRUMP’s price surpassed $75 in January, the volume climbed above $52 billion.
If this remains the same, the TRUMP memecoin price might continue to struggle and probably inch closer to its launch price.
TRUMP Price Analysis: No Recovery
Looking at its short-term outlook, TRUMP has consistently fallen below key support levels. Currently, the price is below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in blue.
Likewise, the memecoin has also fallen below the 20 EMA (yellow). This decline below the EMAs indicates a bearish trend. Should the TRUMP memecoin price fail to surge above these levels, then an extended decline could be next.
In that case, the cryptocurrency’s value might drop below $6. On the contrary, if the token rises above these indicators, the trend might change.
Should that be the case, TRUMP might rally to $17.05 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
