TRUMP Memecoin Down 87% Since January — More Downside Likely

Key Takeaways

• Final wave (Y) may complete near $8.06 support.
• The momentum indicator signals a decrease in bearish momentum.
• Breakout from the accumulation zone could trigger a reversal.
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TRUMP is consolidating at its descending channel’s lower boundary after undergoing a significant multi-week correction.

The structure exhibits a typical WXY double correction, and the price now hovers within a tight range, suggesting a breakout could be imminent.

Momentum indicators hint at the potential exhaustion of the downtrend as key support is tested.

TRUMP Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart illustrates a large descending channel forming from TRUMP’s all-time high of $77.70 in January, with a WXY corrective structure dominating the macro downtrend.

The asset is now approaching the terminal leg of wave Y after losing 87% since the all-time high.

Since March 11, the price has been consolidating within a horizontal support zone between $9.20 and $11.80, which could be the first hint of a reversal.

Wave (X) formed a clear reaction high, but all subsequent rallies have been muted, leading to the final breakdown phase toward wave (Y).

Notably, the price action is compressing within the channel, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has diverged positively.

RSI prints higher lows while the price continues to push lower, indicating bearish momentum is weakening.

The 0.5 Fibonacci level also appears around the $11 level on the log chart, which aligns closely with the horizontal pivot point.

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A clean reaction from this zone could suggest the end of the correction and the beginning of a new impulsive wave.

Confirmation would require a breakout above the descending resistance and ideally above $13.00 to flip short-term market sentiment bullish.

TRUMP Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart offers a more detailed look at the ongoing compression phase inside the horizontal accumulation zone.

The latest structure suggests that wave (b) of (Y) has concluded, and wave (c) is developing with more downside potential ahead.

Price is testing the lower band of the green zone, which is its March 11 low level.

Two scenarios emerge: The bullish outlook sees TRUMP forming a higher low above $10 and initiating a breakout from the range.

In this case, a recovery wave could initially target $13.00 and potentially extend toward $17.65, the 0.786 retracement level from the macro correction.

The alternate scenario suggests another drop toward $8.06 to complete wave (c) of Y before any sustainable rally begins.

This would also align with the full measured move from wave (a)-(b)-(c), where $8.06 acts as both horizontal and diagonal confluence.

Momentum needs to be monitored closely. A strong bullish divergence paired with a volume spike could mark a springboard for a breakout.

A reclaim of $12.00–$13.00 would likely attract renewed buyers and mark the start of a larger reversal structure.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $11.80 (range high).
• Key Resistance: $13.00 (breakout confirmation).
• Major Resistance: $17.65 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $9.00 (range base).
• Critical Support: $8.06 (wave (Y) target and structural demand).
• Reversal Target: $13.00–$17.65 upon breakout confirmation.