Key Takeaways
Ethereum’s performance this cycle has been nothing short of disastrous. The price failed to reach a new all-time high and has fallen by 50% since its cycle high.
Last week, ETH closed below an ascending support trend line for the first time since the bull run started.
This is a worrying sign that the bull market is over, especially since it occurred against the backdrop of positive news regarding the first White House crypto summit.
Let’s look at the charts and see if this is the case. If yes, where will Ethereum bottom?
Last week, Ethereum dropped below a long-term ascending support trend line for the first time since the current bull run started. More accurately, the trend line had existed for 994 days.
Breakdowns from such long-term structures often mean that the underlying trend has ended and a new one has started in the other direction.
To further reiterate the bearish outlook, the ETH price closed below the $2,300 horizontal area for the first time in 2025, falling to a new yearly low of $1,989, the lowest price since November 2023.
So, the Ethereum drop makes the price action bearish, suggesting that the cycle has ended.
Finally, technical indicators are also bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling and are into bearish territory at 50 and 0, respectively.
If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be at $1,200, a level not seen since the start of 2023.
The long-term wave count for ETH is extremely bearish. According to the count, ETH completed a five-wave upward movement between 2019 and 2021. If true, the entire cycle’s upward movement has been part of a corrective wave X in a W-X-Y structure.
The fact that a descending parallel channel contains the movement and the ETH price has now fallen below it increases the likelihood that this is the correct count.
Giving waves W and Y the same length leads to a target of $760, breaking below the previous cycle’s low. If reached, it would be the lowest price since the start of 2021.
This could mark the end of the correction, after which a significant upward movement would follow.
On the other hand, moving back inside the long-term channel would give some hope for a relief rally since that would also cause a reclaim of the long-term trend line.
However, the movement inside the channel is extremely choppy, indicative of a correction. Therefore, reclaiming the channel will not put a valid bullish count on the table.
Ethereum has severely underperformed for two years, and this trend does not seem likely to reverse in 2025.
On the contrary, the recent breakdown below diagonal and horizontal support could indicate that 2025 will bring even more downside.