Ethereum’s price movement gave some much-needed optimism with a bounce on March 11. The positive momentum led to a bullish candlestick on March 19, when the ETH price outperformed Bitcoin (BTC).
However, ETH has dropped below $2,000 since while Bitcoin held firm, reinforcing a long-term bearish trend between the two.
Ethereum’s failure to hold $2,000 risks taking the price to yet another yearly low. Let’s analyze the price action and see what will happen.
Technical indicators align with the price action, giving a bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling.
The RSI is below 50 while the MACD is negative, suggesting a bearish trend. If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be $1,600.
ETH Drop Incoming?
As CCN analyst Victor predicted last week, Ethereum broke out from its resistance trend line, reaching a high of $2,090.
While the short-term breakout materialized, the wave count suggests it is corrective. The most likely count suggests the movement is an A-B-C structure (green), characterized by the triangle in wave B.
Since Elliott Wave theory states that symmetrical triangles cannot be wave two in an impulsive movement, the only alternative is a corrective structure.
Waves A and C having the same length supports this possibility. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the structure gives a target of $1,550, aligning with the long-term horizontal support area.
On the other hand, increasing above the wave C high of $2,070 will invalidate this count, leading to new Ethereum price highs. This currently seems unlikely.
Bearish Ethereum Trend
Ethereum confirmed its bearish trend with a breakdown from long-term diagonal and horizontal support levels.
While the price bounced on March 11, the increase is a corrective structure and could have ended on March 19.
If this is the case, Ethereum will continue its downward movement toward the next closest support at $1,600.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
