Key Takeaways
Litecoin (LTC) has lagged in the current crypto market cycle, beginning its rapid increase only in November 2024. Furthermore, the increase was short-lived, since Litecoin peaked in December 2024 and created a lower high the next month.
Litecoin closed below $100 in March, invalidating the previous breakout and casting doubt on its long-term bullish potential. Now, the question is: Can Litecoin regain its momentum, or is another drop inevitable? Let’s find out.
The weekly time frame shows that LTC has traded inside an ascending parallel channel for nearly three years.
The price made three unsuccessful breakout attempts (red icons) in the past four months before falling.
Last week, Litecoin’s price confirmed the breakdown below the $100 horizontal support area and the channel’s midline, confirming the bearish trend.
Technical indicators are bearish, legitimizing the breakdown. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence made a bearish cross.
If Litecoin’s breakdown continues, the next closest support area will be at $65. Since channels usually contain corrective movements, an eventual breakdown from it is likely.
Litecoin’s long-term wave count suggests the price has traded inside a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern since its all-time high in 2018. If the count is accurate, LTC is in wave E, which will complete the structure.
Wave E could end near $60, reaching the triangle’s and channel’s support trend line, which coincide.
After wave E ends, a successful breakout could take the LTC price to $598, reaching the pattern’s 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the pattern.
However, it is worth remembering that the triangle’s support and resistance trend lines will converge in 2027. So, the LTC price could continue consolidating for a while before eventually breaking out.
On the other hand, a breakdown from the triangle will invalidate the bullish long-term Litecoin prediction. If that happens, the next closest support area will be at $38.
The Litecoin price confirmed it started its bearish trend reversal because of its weekly close below $100.
Litecoin’s decline also took it below the middle of an ascending parallel channel, confirming the breakdown.
If the downward movement continues, the next closest support will be near $60.