Ethereum (ETH) Poised for a Breakout After Extended Downtrend

Key Takeaways

• A symmetrical triangle breakout suggests a potential bullish continuation.
• RSI shows neutral momentum, requiring confirmation for an uptrend.
• Fibonacci levels at $3,495 and $3,730 serve as key price targets.

Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating after a sharp decline and is on the brink of a breakout from the long-lasting descending structure.

However, momentum remains uncertain as the price moves within a lower-degree symmetrical triangle.

We use Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci projections to assess ETH’s next move based on high and low time frames.

ETH Price Analysis 

Ethereum’s daily chart shows that price action has been in a corrective phase following a $4,100 high on March 11.

The Elliott Wave count indicates a completed WXY correction, which bottomed at $2,150 on Feb. 3 before initiating a recovery.

A key observation is that ETH tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $2,881 on Feb. 4, which currently serves as a resistance level.

The market structure suggests ETH is attempting to build support after a prolonged downtrend, with signs of stabilization forming around the $2,700–$2,800 range.

The price has rebounded off a critical support level at $2,503 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement), which aligns with historical demand zones.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings on the daily timeframe remain neutral, neither in overbought nor oversold territory, suggesting room for movement in either direction.

The next major test for ETH will be reclaiming the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $3,349, which would signal potential bullish momentum returning.

A confirmed break above $3,349 could propel ETH’s price toward higher values. However, failure to hold above $2,700 would expose the price to a deeper correction toward the $2,503 and $2,125 support levels.

ETH Price Prediction

Ethereum broke out of a descending channel on Jan. 31, resulting in the price rising to $3,430 before undergoing a deeper correction.

The 1-hour chart suggests that ETH is in the initial stages of a five-wave Elliott pattern, with wave (i) completed at $2,881 on Feb. 3 and wave (ii) potentially finding support around $2,700.

A successful wave (iii) breakout could target $3,495, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

If ETH maintains momentum, wave (v) could extend to $3,730, where the 2.0 Fibonacci extension resides.

However, downside risks remain. If ETH fails to hold $2,768 as support, a retracement toward $2,503 (0.5 Fibonacci) could unfold, invalidating the bullish scenario.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart indicates mild bullish divergence, hinting at a potential upside, but confirmation is needed through increased volume and sustained price movement above $2,881.

Given the structure, Ethereum appears positioned for a short-term rally contingent on holding key supports.

If wave (iii) unfolds as expected, traders should watch for a breakout above $3,031, confirming the upward trajectory.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $3,031 (breakout confirmation level).
• Key Resistance: $3,495 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).
• Major Resistance: $3,730 (2.0 Fibonacci extension).
• Immediate Support: $2,768 (wave ii retracement).
• Key Support: $2,503 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $2,125 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target for Wave (v): Above $3,730 if momentum sustains.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $2,503, signaling further downside.