Solana (SOL) Breaks Resistance but Enters Consolidation Phase

Key Takeaways

• Breakout Potential: Falling wedge pattern forming.
• Elliott Wave Count: The corrective phase is near completion.
• Fibonacci Levels: 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones crucial.

Solana (SOL) shows signs of a potential bullish breakout after an extended corrective phase.

The 4-hour and 1-hour charts illustrate a falling wedge formation, a classic reversal pattern, with Fibonacci retracement levels providing key support and resistance zones.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests completing a corrective wave, paving the way for a potential impulsive wave.

SOL Price Analysis 

Solana has been in a prolonged downtrend since its high, near $295, forming a descending channel structure.

The corrective wave structure is a WXYXZ pattern, with Wave Z reaching a strong demand zone near $173.

This level aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential bottom.

The price currently trades near $199, attempting to break above the channel’s upper boundary. This level corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $195, acting as immediate resistance.

A successful breakout from this pattern could confirm a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is gradually recovering from oversold conditions, currently hovering around 45-50.

This suggests neutral momentum but with potential for upside if buying pressure increases.

Key resistance zones include the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $217 and the 0.5 level at $231. A sustained move above these levels would further validate the bullish case, signaling the start of a new impulsive wave.

However, if SOL fails to break the wedge resistance, a retest of the $173-$168 support zone before a final breakout remains possible.

SOL Price Prediction 

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, the Elliott Wave structure suggests the beginning of a new five-wave impulse. The corrective phase appears complete, with Wave (ii) finding support near $195.

A breakout from the wedge would likely initiate Wave (iii), targeting higher Fibonacci extensions.

Wave (iii) projections place an initial target around $246 (0.382 Fibonacci), followed by $264 (0.236) if momentum sustains.

This aligns with historical resistance zones, making them critical levels to watch. If bullish momentum remains strong, Wave (v) could push SOL toward $294, aligning with prior highs.

However, this bullish outlook would be invalidated if SOL falls below the $173 support, signaling further corrective movement.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart is currently rising but needs to break above 60 for stronger confirmation of a bullish trend.

A measured breakout could see SOL rallying towards $230-$250 in the short term.

The key confirmation will be a decisive move above $217, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous downtrend.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate resistance: $195 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $217 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Resistance: $231 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target for Wave (iii): Above $246-$264.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $173, signaling further downside.