FTX Moves Forward With Repayments — FTT Price Reaction Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Breakout Attempt: Price challenges key resistance near the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
• Wave Structure: Potential completion of an impulsive five-wave pattern.
• RSI Momentum: Neutral positioning suggests room for further movement.

FTX will begin creditor repayments on February 18, 2025 , starting with those in the “Convenience Class”—creditors with $50,000 or less to claim.

These individuals will receive full repayment plus 9% annual interest accrued since November 2022. FTX has partnered with BitGo and Kraken to handle the distributions, and payments should arrive within 1 to 3 business days after the initial payout date.

Eligible creditors must complete KYC verification and submit tax forms to receive funds. Those who miss the deadline can still qualify for later distributions.

Creditors with claims over $50,000 will begin receiving payments in Q2 2025, with FTX planning to distribute $17 billion in total, starting with $7 billion in the first phase.

This marks a key step in FTX’s reorganization plan, which took effect on Jan. 3, 2025, following lengthy bankruptcy proceedings and asset recovery efforts.

If creditors receive payouts in crypto and decide to sell, it could create downward pressure on the market. However, most repayments are expected in cash, reducing immediate selling pressure on FTT.

Some traders might view the repayments as a positive sign that FTX’s bankruptcy is wrapping up, potentially restoring confidence in FTX-related assets. This could lead to speculative buying of FTT.

FTT Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart reveals FTT’s attempt to recover from its recent downtrend following an impulsive five-wave Elliott Wave structure that peaked at approximately $4.30 on Dec. 5.

The price entered a corrective phase afterward, dropping slightly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.5 on Feb. 3, where buyers have shown interest.

This level has held as a key support, preventing further declines.

The ongoing rebound suggests a possible reversal or at least a corrective wave. The price has now climbed above $2.20, approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $2.57.

A decisive move above this level could confirm further bullish continuation toward the next key resistance at $2.93 (0.382 Fib).

However, the broad structure suggests FTT remains in a corrective phase, and a failure to hold above $2.20 could trigger a deeper decline toward the 0.786 retracement level at $1.68.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, fluctuating near 50, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers currently have a clear advantage.

Momentum remains fragile, and the price structure suggests that strong volume and sustained demand must confirm any bullish breakout.

FTT Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, FTT formed an ascending triangle structure, typically a sign of potential short-term exhaustion. Elliott Wave analysis suggests the current price movement aligns with a five-wave impulsive formation.

The immediate price action indicates that wave (iv) has formed a minor retracement to $2.16 after wave (iii) peaked at $2.45. If momentum continues, wave (v) will extend toward $2.57 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).

If the bullish scenario holds, a successful breakout above $2.57 could target $2.93 (0.382 Fibonacci level), which aligns with previous structural resistance.

Conversely, a failure at these resistance levels could lead to a deeper pullback, potentially dragging FTT toward the $1.68 region, where strong horizontal support exists.

Momentum remains a crucial factor, and the RSI on the 1-hour chart suggests a need for caution, as any overbought signals may precede a short-term reversal. Traders should monitor volume closely to gauge the sustainability of any breakout.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $2.57 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $2.93 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Major Resistance: $4.12 (previous peak, 0.0 Fibonacci level).
• Immediate Support: $2.20 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $1.68 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Bullish Target: $2.93 if wave (v) extends higher.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $2.20, indicating further downside potential.