Bitcoin (BTC) Sellers Losing Steam, but Trump Tariffs May Keep $100K out of Reach

Key Takeaways

• Following Bitcoin’s price drop after Trump’s tariff announcement, the P/Loss ratio fell, indicating easing selling pressure.
• An analyst predicts that the tariffs could send BTC into the $76,000 to $78,000 range, with a potential drop in the summer.
• The IOMAP data suggests that Bitcoin faces resistance in this $85,257  to $95,300 price range due to unrealized losses.
• If there are favorable developments under the Trump administration, Bitcoin’s price trend could improve.
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The much-anticipated ‘Liberation Day’ has come and gone, with U.S. President Donald Trump announcing new import tariffs. However, one thing that has remained unchanged is Bitcoin’s (BTC) continued price decline.

In the last 90 days, BTC has fallen by over 15%. This performance contradicts what the broader market expected after Trump’s inauguration in January.

Although President Trump appears to have remained consistent with his pro-crypto stance, his actions regarding the new tariffs are putting pressure on the market.

Despite this, on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin is experiencing less selling pressure. However, with Trump in the way, this might not lead to a sustained uptrend.

Bitcoin Sellers Exhausted

After Trump announced new tariffs on April 2, Bitcoin’s price fell from its previous rebound of $85,024 to $82,372. Following this price action, Bitcoin’s Profit/Loss ratio dropped below 1.0, according to Glassnode data.

The Bitcoin P/L ratio compares the volume of realized profits to loss. When the ratio is above 1, market participants lock in more profits than losses.

On the other hand, a decline below 1 creates an imbalance where realized losses outweigh profits. In terms of the price, this decline indicates that sellers are getting exhausted.

If sustained, Bitcoin’s price should see a short-term recovery if it does not fall below the $76,000 to $80,000 region.

However, BTC has not seen any sign of renewed market strength, especially with the Trump tariffs stifling liquidity.

Trump Tariffs Could Block Recovery, Expert Says

Tracy Jin, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of crypto exchange MEXC, also seems to agree with the thesis. According to Jin, retaliatory tariffs could lead to extreme volatility and question BTC’s status as a safe haven in times like this.

“This will call into question the status of Bitcoin as a safe haven, which may lead to an even sharper outflow of funds from the ETF. In this context, a negative scenario appears more likely — Bitcoin may end April in the $76,000–$78,000 range, with a potential drop to $52,000–$56,000 during the summer,” The CCO said in an exclusive conversation with CCN.

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In line with this bias, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) shows that Bitcoin’s price could face resistance from $85,257 to $95,300. This is due to the large number of coins in unrealized losses in these regions.

Thus, if buying volume fails to match or outpace the unrealized losses at the aforementioned level, BTC might struggle to retest $100,000.

For pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the easing selling pressure could be an early sign of a bullish divergence. However, he mentioned that BTC has to hold the $82,400 support to validate the outlook.

“Bitcoin is also potentially forming the very early signs of a brand new Exaggerated Bullish Divergence Double bottom on the price action meanwhile the RSI develops Higher Lows $82400 needs to continue holding as support,” The analyst stated on X.

BTC Price Analysis: Breakout or Breakdown?

Concerning its short-term potential, the daily chart shows that the red line of the Supertrend is above Bitcoin’s price. This position suggests a bearish trend could be close, with BTC facing resistance near $91,952.

Like the Supertrend, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reading declined to the negative region, indicating bearish momentum.

If this remains the same, BTC’s value could drop to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of $74,193. In a highly bearish scenario, Bitcoin’s price might slide below $70,000.

However, Jin added that Trump could still have a positive effect on BTC while mentioning potential catalysts that could impact that.

“Nevertheless, the Trump administration may still bring pleasant surprises for the crypto market. Changes in the refinancing rate, taxation, and/or regulation can become a catalyst for an upward price movement. A return to January’s values of  $100,000-102,000 for Bitcoin can stimulate a transfer of capital from gold to Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETF, potentially pushing BTC further toward $118,000–$120,000.” Jin emphasized.