Bitcoin (BTC) Price at Make-or-Break Level After Donald Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Announcement
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) follows a descending resistance trend line.
- The BTC price trades below the $91,500 resistance area.
- Can Bitcoin close above these resistances and rally to new highs?
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The first-ever White House Crypto Summit on March 7 is one of the most anticipated events in the market. It will bring together industry heavyweights such as Michael Saylor, Brad Garlinghouse, and Brian Armstrong to discuss the future role of the U.S. in crypto.
On March 6, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Interestingly, the BTC price had a subdued reaction to it, possibly because the reserve only included BTC seized from illicit activities, with the only means of acquiring being a budget-neutral practice. The U.S. owns 8,100 metric tons of gold, so the possibility of swapping it for BTC has been floated around.
With that in mind, let’s look at the Bitcoin price action and see if the reaction to the crypto summit will be better than that after Trump’s reserve announcement.
Bitcoin Price Struggles
The daily time frame BTC chart shows that the price has increased since its low of $78,197 on Feb. 28. The rally culminated with a high of $95,152 on March 2.
While this seemingly caused a breakout above the $91,500 resistance area, BTC failed to sustain it (black circle) and fell below it the next day.
The $91,500 area is critical since it provided support since November 2024 before breaking down. Therefore, the trend cannot be considered bullish until the price closes decisively above it.
In addition to the $91,500 resistance, the BTC price has followed a descending resistance trend line since its all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20. Therefore, while the BTC price has created several higher lows since Feb. 28, it faces strong resistance ahead.
Technical indicators echo the price action. They are increasing but have encountered strong resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) struggles to make a bullish cross.
As a result, the daily time frame does not confirm the trend’s direction. Rather, either a breakout above the $91,500 area and the resistance trend line or a strong rejection is needed to confirm what will happen next.
Can BTC Price Break Out?
The short-term movement leans slightly bearish. Bitcoin’s increase since Feb. 28 is a clear three-wave structure (green), and the ensuing drop is a five-wave downward movement (red).
The increase on March 4 is also a three-wave structure. Price action in which upward movements are three-wave structures while decreases have five waves indicates a bearish trend.
Similarly to the daily time frame, the BTC price trades at a confluence of resistances in the six-hour one.
More specifically, it is inside the $88,450 area (black circle) and a descending resistance trend line, which has existed since the local high of $92,790.
If the bearish scenario is true, the resistance will reject the BTC price, causing it to break down from its long-term ascending parallel channel.
Alternatively, a breakout from these levels could take the BTC price to the channel’s midline at $92,500 and possibly the resistance trend line at $99,000.
Critical Weekly Close
Similarly to the short-term time frames, the weekly one also leans bearish. The BTC price trades below the $92,500 resistance. It must close above this area for any bullish hopes to remain alive.
While the price fell to a low of $78,197 last week, it still closed above the horizontal area, creating a massive long upper wick.
A close above the area will create a bullish candlestick with a similarly long lower wick. Combined with last week’s movement, it would bullish the BTC price action, with the area preventing a breakdown despite two drops below it.
A close below this area would be the lowest weekly close of the year and would go a long way in confirming the bearish trend. In that case, the next support will be at $68,000-$70,000.
Technical indicators are lean bearish since the RSI and MACD are falling. The RSI is almost below 50, while the MACD has made a bearish cross (black circle), supporting the possibility of a breakdown.
Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment
The Bitcoin price action leans bearish despite Trump announcing a Bitcoin reserve.
In the weekly time frame, BTC has closed above $91,500 to prevent a bearish trend that could lead to lows near $70,000.
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