Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crosses $90K as US Moves Toward Strategic Crypto Adoption
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) price increased by 10% on March 2.
- BTC attempts to reclaim the $92,500 support.
- Is BTC’s correction over, or will the price crash again?
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BTC has fallen since its all-time high on Jan. 20. The downward movement accelerated at the end of February, causing a breakdown from a long-term horizontal support area.
However, the trend completed a turn in March, as Bitcoin’s price rallied after U.S. President Trump’s strategic crypto reserve announcement.
The rally brought optimism that the bull market would resume after a brief decline.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the price action in different time frames and see if this is the case or if the bounce is just a relief rally.
Bitcoin Price Recovers
The BTC price has fallen since its double top pattern (red icons) in December 2024 – January 2025, which coincided with the all-time high price of $109,356 in January.
The decline culminated with a low of $78,197 on Feb. 28, seemingly causing a breakdown below the long-term horizontal support at $92,500.
However, Bitcoin mounted an impressive rally after Trump’s strategic crypto reserve announcement, creating a long lower wick (green icon) and reclaiming the horizontal area. The Bitcoin price trades inside it today.
The bounce happened at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support level of $79,306.
Despite the bounce and seemingly positive price action, technical indicators are still bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling, and the latter has made a bearish cross.
However, the indicators are not below their bearish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively, yet.
The daily time frame chart is less optimistic. It shows a descending resistance trend line (red icon) that coincides with the $93,000 horizontal resistance area (red icon).
Thus, this confluence will make it more difficult for the BTC price to break out.
Furthermore, the RSI and MACD are not bullish yet, and neither has generated any bullish divergences, likely during significant bottoms.
Therefore, despite the bounce, the weekly and daily time frames still lean bearish.
Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Over?
Similarly to the price action, the wave count is inconclusive about whether the Bitcoin trend has ended.
While the long-term count (green) shows a completed five-wave upward movement, the short-term one (orange) allows for the possibility that the fifth sub-wave is not over yet and the Bitcoin price will complete another high.
The completed cycle is slightly more likely for two reasons. Firstly, wave five has extended, giving it the same length as waves one and three combined.
The BTC high was also made at the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the previous drop, making it a likely area for a cycle top.
Furthermore, the weekly RSI generated a bearish divergence (orange), similar to what it did in the 2021 cycle, while the MACD made a bearish cross (black circle).
The short-term count leans slightly more bullish. There are two possibilities for the decline ensuing since the all-time high.
The bullish one (red) suggests the BTC price decrease was an A-B-C structure that is now complete. Waves A and C had nearly the same length, meaning the long-term wave four is over, and another increase has started.
Alternatively, the bearish count shows a completed five-wave downward movement (black), a leading diagonal. This is more unusual than the correction, thus making it less likely.
The even shorter-term count is also bullish since the bounce resembles a five-wave increase more than it does an A-B-C structure.
The BTC trend’s direction depends on wave one, which is high at $85,558 (red). A decrease below will indicate the bounce is corrective, while a higher low above it will mean the opposite.
Bitcoin’s March Movement Critical
The Bitcoin price rallied after Trump’s strategic crypto reserve announcement, reviving hope that the bull market will continue. However, readings are mixed.
The price action leans bearish, while the wave count is mixed, with the long-term being bearish and the short-term bullish.
The shape of the ongoing bounce may determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish.
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