Bitcoin’s Bearish March Close Sets Stage for Potential $70,000 April Drop

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) created a bearish, engulfing weekly candlestick.
• A long-term descending resistance trend line rejected BTC.
• Will Bitcoin break above this resistance, or will it fall to new lows?
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After a 30% drop since its all-time high, Bitcoin found relief on March 11 and began a 14-day rally.

The rally was unsuccessful since Bitcoin failed to break its corrective trend line and invalidated its bullish structure.

The BTC price teeters on the edge of a breakdown after struggling to maintain its final support area before the yearly low.

With Bitcoin at a make-or-break level, the key question is: Can the price muster enough strength and break out, or are new lows inevitable in 2025?

Bitcoin’s Bearish Candlestick

The weekly time frame chart shows that Bitcoin created a bearish engulfing candlestick last week.

The candlestick ended a two-week rally after the price reached a bottom of $76,600 on March 11.

Since the rally occurred after a massive decrease in the first week of March, last week’s candlestick confirms the bearish trend.

Therefore, the previous increase was just a relief rally, and the Bitcoin price is now continuing its bearish trend toward new lows.

Technical indicators are bearish, suggesting the downward movement will continue toward new lows.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross (black circles).

If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be $69,000.

Bitcoin Breaks Down

As predicted at the start of March, the Bitcoin price completed a relief rally starting on March 13. An ascending parallel channel contained the rally, implying that it was corrective.

A rejection from a descending resistance trend line (black) catalyzed the breakdown, creating several bearish daily candlesticks.

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The BTC price trades inside the $81,160 support area, a breakdown below which can take Bitcoin to its yearly low of $76,600.

Similarly to the weekly time frame, technical indicators suggest the BTC price will break down. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative and has made a bearish cross.

So, the weekly and daily time frame price action and indicator readings are all bearish, suggesting Bitcoin’s price will fall to new lows.

The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the increase gives a target near $69,000, coinciding with the long-term support area.

What Lies Ahead?

Bitcoin’s latest count suggests the price will continue falling in 2025. The count suggests BTC has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) starting in December 2022.

The bearish divergence developing in the RSI during 2024 supports this count, as does the sub-wave count (orange).

If it is accurate, the wave count suggests Bitcoin has started a new five-wave downward movement (orange) and completed waves one and two (red).

A preliminary target for the bottom of the decline is between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $51,378 and $62,437.

The short-term chart aligns, showing a completed five-wave downward movement (black). The chart suggests a relief rally could follow, but the long-term trend is bearish.

The RSI and MACD bullish divergences (orange) support the bullish Bitcoin prediction, especially when combined with the short-term double-bottom pattern.

So, the Bitcoin price could rally toward the $84,200-$85,100 resistance area before resuming its downward movement for the rest of 2025.

2025 Will be Bearish

Bitcoin’s price has trended downward since its all-time high of $109,588 on Jan.20.

While BTC rallied on March 11, it failed to maintain its momentum and broke down from its structure on March 28.

Long-term readings and the wave count suggest the bearish Bitcoin trend will continue in 2025.