Technical indicators are bearish, suggesting the downward movement will continue toward new lows.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross (black circles).
If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be $69,000.
Bitcoin Breaks Down
As predicted at the start of March, the Bitcoin price completed a relief rally starting on March 13. An ascending parallel channel contained the rally, implying that it was corrective.
A rejection from a descending resistance trend line (black) catalyzed the breakdown, creating several bearish daily candlesticks.
The BTC price trades inside the $81,160 support area, a breakdown below which can take Bitcoin to its yearly low of $76,600.
Similarly to the weekly time frame, technical indicators suggest the BTC price will break down. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative and has made a bearish cross.
So, the weekly and daily time frame price action and indicator readings are all bearish, suggesting Bitcoin’s price will fall to new lows.
The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the increase gives a target near $69,000, coinciding with the long-term support area.
What Lies Ahead?
Bitcoin’s latest count suggests the price will continue falling in 2025. The count suggests BTC has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) starting in December 2022.
The bearish divergence developing in the RSI during 2024 supports this count, as does the sub-wave count (orange).
If it is accurate, the wave count suggests Bitcoin has started a new five-wave downward movement (orange) and completed waves one and two (red).
A preliminary target for the bottom of the decline is between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $51,378 and $62,437.
The short-term chart aligns, showing a completed five-wave downward movement (black). The chart suggests a relief rally could follow, but the long-term trend is bearish.
The RSI and MACD bullish divergences (orange) support the bullish Bitcoin prediction, especially when combined with the short-term double-bottom pattern.
So, the Bitcoin price could rally toward the $84,200-$85,100 resistance area before resuming its downward movement for the rest of 2025.
2025 Will be Bearish
Bitcoin’s price has trended downward since its all-time high of $109,588 on Jan.20.
While BTC rallied on March 11, it failed to maintain its momentum and broke down from its structure on March 28.
Long-term readings and the wave count suggest the bearish Bitcoin trend will continue in 2025.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
