Bitcoin (BTC) Price Flashes Warning Signals as it Struggles to Hold $95,000

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) has created a long-term double-top pattern.
• Technical indicators have created long-term bearish divergences.
• Is the Bitcoin market cycle over, or will the rally extend again?

Bitcoin fell sharply after reaching a new all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20. The price declined to $91,530 on Feb. 3 but bounced afterward, creating a massive bullish engulfing candlestick.

Since then, the Bitcoin movement has been absent of any volatility whatsoever. Bitcoin has traded in a short-term horizontal range, which has important implications for its long-term trend.

Let’s dive into the charts and see what the rest of the month holds for BTC.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Struggles

The weekly time frame chart shows that Bitcoin has created a double-top pattern (black icons) in December 2024 and January 2025. The double-top is a bearish pattern and coincided with the all-time high price of $109,356.

Despite the bearish pattern, the Bitcoin price has not fallen sharply yet. Rather, it has hovered near $95,000 in the past three weeks. So, the Bitcoin price may still invalidate the pattern if it bounces at the current level and moves to new highs.

However, technical indicators show a worrying similarity to the 2021/2022 Bitcoin market top. In both cases, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) generated a bearish divergence (orange), which was followed by a bearish cross (black circle) in the weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD).

Therefore, the weekly time frame is leaning bearish, suggesting that the Bitcoin market cycle is over.

The daily time frame does nothing to dissuade from the bearish outlook. Bitcoin prices have struggled under a descending resistance trend line since the high.

More recently, the trend line caused a rejection on Feb 21 (black icon), creating a bearish engulfing candlestick.

Furthermore, the price trades below the midline of its long-term range between $92,500 and $106,500. Also, the RSI is below 50, while the MACD is below 0.

So, the combination of the weekly and daily time frames suggests that the BTC trend is bearish. A breakdown below $92,500 will confirm this Bitcoin prediction.

Is the Bitcoin Cycle Over?

The long-term wave count shows that Bitcoin’s price is in the fifth and final wave of an upward movement (green) that started in December 2025. The sub-wave count is in orange.

The long-term count does not confirm if wave five has ended or will extend. Wave five has had the same length as waves one and three combined (green), a likely target for a top. However, it may extend to the 1.61 length and reach a high of $142,000.

The sub-wave count is also unclear since it shows a completed five-wave increase with an unusually short wave five. So, it does not help to confirm whether wave five will extend.

The short-term count offers clear levels for invalidation of the bullish scenario. If Bitcoin is to extend its increase, it must hold above the $91,231 low (red).

In the case of a fifth-wave extension, the correction ended at that level, and Bitcoin’s upward movement should not decline below it for the increase to remain valid.

Alternatively, a decrease below this line will confirm the Bitcoin market cycle has ended, leading to a sharp decline below $90,000.

Uncertain Trend Ahead

Bitcoin’s price has struggled since its all-time high of $109,588 on Jan. 20. While the price action leans bearish, the wave count still offers hope that the upward movement may continue.

Whether Bitcoin remains above $91,231 or breaks down can determine if the market cycle is over.