Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Breakout Success Hinges on Sustained Momentum

Key Takeaways

• Corrective wave 4 appears complete.
• Bearish divergence forming on RSI.
• Wave 5 structure may already be underway.
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to unfold within a broader impulsive cycle after recently completing a corrective ABC phase.

The higher and lower time frames suggest the asset could be in the early stages of Wave 5, though bearish RSI divergences on intraday charts warrant cautious optimism.

Below, we examine the macro and micro structures to determine where BTC may be headed.

BTC Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart suggests that BTC has completed its wave 4 correction as an ABC structure in a descending channel, at a low that terminated near $76,700.

The breakout from the channel confirms the start of wave 5, with BTC now trading above the 0.382 retracement at $86,774. This level now acts as pivotal support.

The bullish move is also validated by a rising RSI, which is climbing back toward overbought territory but hasn’t diverged yet in this time frame.

BTC currently targets the next resistance at $94,795 (0.236 retracement of the prior decline).

A successful break above this level would likely propel the price into new all-time high territory, testing the macro high of $107,760.

On the downside, support remains strong at $80,292 (0.5 Fib), and any breakdown below could threaten the bullish structure.

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Overall, the macro context favors the upside, as wave 5 typically leads to price discovery phases.

BTC Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, BTC has formed a five-wave impulse sequence with the current price approaching the top of wave (v).

Notably, the RSI has formed multiple bearish divergences, suggesting weakening momentum as the price approaches the $88,000 region.

This signals the possibility of a short-term reversal or a corrective pullback before the next impulsive advance.

The rising wedge structure also supports the case for a near-term dip.

A corrective move could retrace to $86,774 (0.382 Fib), followed by deeper support at $80,292 (0.5 Fib).

However, should BTC maintain support above $86,774 and breach $88,000 convincingly, the next target for wave 3 of the higher-degree fifth wave would be $94,795.

The projection ultimately extends toward $107,760, representing the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of waves 1–3.

Invalidation of the bullish short-term structure occurs with a breakdown below $80,292, indicating that wave 4 is incomplete.

Until then, short-term corrections will likely be shallow within a larger bullish framework.

Bitcoin is entering a high-stakes zone. It faces resistance with waning intraday momentum, yet it is supported by the strong macrostructure.

The next sessions will reveal whether bulls can push toward all-time highs.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $88,000 (wave (v) peak area).
• Key Resistance: $94,795 (0.236 Fib retracement).
• Major Target: $107,760 (macro Fibonacci extension).
• Immediate Support: $86,774 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $80,292 (0.5 retracement / structural support).
• Short-Term Target for Wave 5: $94,795 to $102,000.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $80,292, negating wave (v) bullish case.