When Will Bitcoin's Cycle Top? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon indicator predicts a significant rally.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) gives the same prediction.
How long and until what price will Bitcoin’s bullish trend continue?
Bitcoin’s on-chain signals are flashing bullish as multiple key indicators align for a potential major rally.
The Hash Ribbon, Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), and MVRV pricing bands point to more upside.
Bitcoin could be gearing up for one of its most significant breakouts if these trends hold.
Hash Ribbon Indicator
The Hash Ribbon is an on-chain metric that tracks the balances between Bitcoin mining costs and rewards.
When mining costs outweigh rewards, they shut down operations, triggering what is known as miner capitulation,
On the chart, these periods show up as light and dark red zones, depending on how severe the capitulation is.
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A bearish cross happens when the 30-day hash rate moving average (MA) drops below the 60-day MA, marking the start of capitulation. Later, a bullish cross signals its end.
Historically, the end of miner capitulation has been followed by strong rallies in the Bitcoin price.
This signal has occurred 17 times in the past ten years, and only once (blue circle) failed to deliver a significant rally.
That rare miss was likely due to the sudden collapse of FTX, which shook the market.
Usually, the longer the period of capitulation lasted, the longer the upward movement.
The signal occurred for over a month between June and July when the BTC price was $120,000.
A strong upward movement could occur if history repeats.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is another on-chain market indicator that measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the total stablecoin market cap.
Calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the stablecoin market capitalization, it shows stablecoins’ purchasing power over BTC.
A lower SSR means stablecoins have greater buying strength than Bitcoin, which is often a bullish sign, while the opposite is true for a higher SSR.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/Glassnode
Traders improve the SSR analysis with Bollinger Bands to pinpoint extreme conditions. Historically, dips below the Bollinger band have been followed by price gains and vice versa.
Currently, the SSR is in the upper portion of its Bollinger Bands but has not crossed above it yet.
Previously, this led to a significant Bitcoin price rally that caused a deviation above the band before a crash.
The analysis fits perfectly with the Hash Ribbon, which predicts a massive rally.
Extreme Pricing Bands
The MVRV pricing band is a key on-chain indicator that maps out the extreme ends of Bitcoin market cycles.
Tracking specific MVRV ratios identifies points where BTC holders are experiencing unusually high unrealized profits or deep unrealized losses.
When Bitcoin’s price touches these bands, it often signals a tipping point.
Either it sparks widespread profit-taking during market tops or triggers capitulation at cycle lows. In both cases, these moments frequently mark the turning points of the market cycle.
The upper band is currently at $170,000 and moving upward alongside the BTC price.
With miner capitulation ending, stablecoin buying power positioned to push prices higher, and MVRV bands suggesting room to run, Bitcoin’s bullish setup looks stronger than ever.
Historical data hints that this rally could last for weeks or months, with a potential target above $200,000 before the next major correction.
If past patterns repeat, the next surge may mark a defining moment in the current market cycle.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
