Key Takeaways
XRP is now trading less than 15% below its all-time high, and the charts hint it could be gearing up for one last big push.
While there’s some bullish buzz, including optimism around a potential BlackRock XRP ETF, this rally isn’t being fueled primarily by headlines. Instead, it’s riding the broader market trend.
Price action suggests we may be in the fifth and final wave of the move, with momentum still firmly in the bulls’ favor.
The big question now: just how high can XRP climb before this run loses steam?
XRP began its bullish trend reversal on April 7, creating a higher low on June 22.
While the increase until then was gradual, XRP accelerated afterward, hitting a new all-time high of $3.66 on July 18.
XRP confirmed its bullish trend by breaking out from an ascending parallel channel and briefly returning inside it on Aug. 3.
This movement is called a fourth-wave pullback, and signals that the trend’s fifth and final wave has begun.
Shortly after bouncing, XRP broke out from a descending wedge, and the price is attempting to regain its footing today.
If successful, the next likely area for a top is between $4.23 and $4.77.
The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates the lower range, while the upper range is created by giving wave five the same length as waves one and three combined.

Momentum indicators have already turned bullish. The RSI is above 50, and the MACD has made a bullish cross (black circle).
So, the daily XRP technical analysis is bullish, suggesting a new all-time high between $4.23 and $4.78 is likely.
The long-term analysis is similar to the short-term one, confirming XRP is in the fifth and final wave of its ascent.
The chart shows that the XRP price increase started in June 2024, but became parabolic once the price moved outside a symmetrical triangle.
Not only is the wave count bullish, but the price action shows consolidation above the previous all-time high of $2.80.

The bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD (orange) raises concerns.
However, it also reinforces that XRP is likely in its fifth and final wave, since bearish divergences usually happen between waves three and five.
So, the XRP price prediction is still bullish, but a cycle top could be reached soon.
XRP on-chain indicators support the price action by warning that a cycle top is near.
Firstly, the long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Indicator (NUPL) is similar to the previous cycle tops.
The NUPL is almost at 0.75, and the 2017 and 2021 highs were reached above 0.75.

If the indicator follows previous history, the XRP price will reach another high before eventually correcting, as predicted by the price action.
The Realized Cap HODL Wave states the same thing. The indicator uses different colored bands to show whether short- or long-term buyers dominate trading.
Historically, periods when short-term holders (<6 months) have more than 50% of the trading activity have coincided with market cycle tops.

Currently, the HODL waves are at 50% and growing. If the next push is driven by short-term holders, as is often the case, the indicator could cross into the danger threshold at 70%.
So, the technical and on-chain analysis for XRP agrees: The price will reach a new all-time high, but that will be the final rally this cycle.
If XRP can break above $3.40, the next stop could be between $4.23 and $4.78, setting a new all-time high.
However, with on-chain data showing signs of a market top, this rally might be the last leg before a correction.
The next few weeks will be crucial in deciding whether XRP can finish this cycle on a high.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
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