Short-term HODL Wave bands have risen to 40%, a level that often precedes volatility.
Long-term holders are selling, with multi-year holding bands shrinking noticeably.
The HODL Wave structure suggests Bitcoin may face another downside move.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is flashing new signals, and the latest HODL Wave readings may reveal where the market is heading next.
As long-term holders begin to move their coins and short-term activity rises, analysts warn that Bitcoin could be approaching another phase of heightened volatility.
Here’s what the HODL Wave chart really shows and why traders are watching it closely.
What Are HODL Waves?
HODL Waves are a visual way to track how long Bitcoin has stayed in its current owner’s wallet.
Because Bitcoin uses the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) model, a coin’s age isn’t tied to when it was mined. Instead, its “age” resets every time it moves on chain.
Warmer colors, such as red and orange, indicate that coins have been recently moved, while cooler tones, like green and blue, represent long-term holders who haven’t touched their BTC in months or years.
There’s also a variation called Realized Cap HODL Waves, which weights each age band by the realized price of those coins.
When the long-term holding bands expand, it typically indicates increased investor confidence, as more people choose to hold their positions rather than sell.
When those same bands shrink, it often signals that long-term holders are taking profits.
Historically, Bitcoin market tops have formed when over 50 percent of the Bitcoin supply last moved within the previous three months, signaling intense speculative activity.
HODL Wave Readings Suggest Rising Risk
One interesting characteristic of the HODL wave indicator is that short-term bands swell during market cycle tops.
More specifically, bands that reach 3 months or less experience more than 50% growth during these times.
This means that 50% of the market activity is being done by wallets that have transacted in the last three months.
Hence, the recent spike may suggest that another significant breakdown is imminent.
Long-Term Holders Sell
When incorporating long-term holders into the analysis, it is clear that they are consistently selling.
In June 2025, the values were as follows:
3-to-5 years – 11%
2-to-3 years – 3%
1-to-2 years -10%
6-to-12 months 27%
Today, these values are
3-to-5 years – 8%
2-to-3 years – 2.5%
1-to-2 years – 13%
6-to-12 months 17%
Hence, a portion of the 6-to-12-month band has graduated to the 1-2 year one, but not enough to offset its 10% decline.
Additionally, the 2-3 and 3-5 year bands have both fallen, noting that long-term holders are exiting the market.
In past cycles, this pattern has often occurred before deeper corrections, not at market bottoms.
What Comes Next
The latest HODL Wave structure indicates a market under pressure, as short-term traders are becoming increasingly active, while long-term holders are trimming their exposure.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
