XRP Price Stuck Above $0.50 — Wave Count Favors Long-Term Upside

Key Takeaways

• XRP trades inside a short-term ascending parallel channel.
• It also trades inside a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern.
• What does the rest of the year store for the XRP price?

The XRP price has struggled in 2024. After starting the year on a positive note, XRP began its downward trend in March and has fallen 15% per year.

XRP broke down from a minor horizontal support level last week but is attempting to reclaim it this week.

Let’s look at the XRP chart and see if the price will reclaim it and what the ramifications are if it does.

XRP Price Retest

The analysis from the daily time frame shows that XRP trades inside an ascending parallel channel that has existed since June. The channel’s resistance trend line rejected it on Sept. 29 (black icon) and started the ongoing downward movement.

The channel’s support trend line is at $0.465. If the movement inside the channel is an A-B-C corrective structure, XRP will reach the support trend line if waves A:C have a 1:1 ratio.

The price action shows that XRP broke down from the $0.525 horizontal area and is currently retesting it as resistance. If it does, it could decline to the support trend line and complete the correction.

Technical indicators give mixed readings. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is increasing, it is still below 50.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) gives a more positive outlook since it has generated a bullish divergence (green) and is close to making a bullish cross.

So, it is unclear if the correction has ended or another low awaits. There is also some positive Ripple news regarding a partnership with Cornell University to enhance blockchain learning and research.

Bullish Long-Term Trend

While it is unclear if XRP will decrease once more in the short term, the long-term XRP price trend is firmly bullish. The weekly chart shows that XRP has traded inside a symmetrical triangle pattern since the start of 2021. The pattern is finally reaching its conclusion.

The long-term wave count suggests an XRP breakout will occur. The most likely count indicates that the movement inside the triangle is part of wave B. The sub-wave count is in black.

If the count is accurate, wave C can reach a high of $2.38, giving it the same length as wave A. A breakout from the triangle will confirm this possibility.

However, technical indicators do not confirm the potential for a breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at 50, and the MACD is close to 0. So, while the price action and wave count predict a breakout, indicators do not confirm it.

Long-Term Breakout

While the short-term XRP trend is unclear, the long-term trend is likely bullish. A breakout from the symmetrical triangle will confirm that the upward movement has started.

However, it is worth mentioning that technical indicators do not verify the trend’s direction in any time frame, so the movement has not yet been confirmed.