Altcoin Season Set to Finally Start in Q4 — Here’s Why
Will Altseason Finally Begin? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Key Takeaways
- The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) has recovered since August.
- The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) shows signs of a top.
- Will the much-anticipated Altcoin season finally begin in Q4?
Bitcoin (BTC) has dominated the current crypto market cycle except for a few select altcoins.
This is especially visible in the ETH/BTC ratio, which has trended downward for over 1,000 days. However, several intriguing signs are developing in the Altcoin market cap and Bitcoin dominance charts, which point to a period of Altcoin outperformance.
Will the altcoin season finally kick off in Q4, or will it be postponed for a later date? Let’s find out.
Altcoins Recover
The altcoin market cap has corrected inside a descending parallel channel since March’s yearly high of $1.27 trillion. The decline led to a low of $721 on Aug. 5.
While this initially caused a breakdown from the channel, the ALTCAP recovered, creating a long lower wick and bouncing (white circle). Then, it made a higher low in September, validating the channel’s support trend line again (white icon).
The wave count is extremely bullish. It implies the Aug. 5 low was a fourth wave pullback and that ALTCAP has begun its upward movements fifth and final wave.
The first target for this upward movement is $1.61 trillion, 74% above the current price.
Read More: Altcoin Market Cap and Bitcoin Dominance Trends Indicate Altseason Signs
Despite these positive readings, the upward movement has not yet been confirmed. This is because the RSI is still below 50, and the MACD is below 0, though they are very close to crossing these thresholds. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) already broke out from its descending resistance trend line.
When excluding Ethereum, the Altcoin market cap is even more bullish, both relative to the price at the beginning of 2023 and relative to that on Aug. 5. While the wave count is identical, the ALTCAP excluding ETH is in the process of breaking out from the channel’s resistance trend line.
Also, the RSI and MACD have moved above 50 and 0, respectively.
This further accentuates the fact that Ethereum has lagged behind altcoins in the current market cycle and the recovery that has been ongoing since Aug. 5.
Bitcoin Dominance Top
Despite reaching a new yearly high last week, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate shows several signs of a potential top.
Firstly, the BTCD has completed a five-wave increase (white), in which wave five developed into an ending diagonal. The sub-wave count is in black.
Secondly, the movement combines bearish divergences in the RSI and MACD (green).
Finally, the high happened between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance levels, a likely area for a top.
Well-known analysts Tradermayne and XForceGlobal both share the same sentiment. Tradermayne notes that Altcoins have already pumped despite the BTCD not falling yet, while XForceGlobal suggests the top is in because of the wave count.
The readings from the altcoin market cap and the Bitcoin dominance chart suggest that the final quarter of 2024 will be bullish for altcoins.
Altcoin Season in Q4
Even though the BTCD has increased dramatically in the past two years, the upward movement could finally reach its conclusion. Readings from the altcoin market cap also indicate that Altcoins are on the precipice of a rapid upward movement, making an altcoin season likely in the final quarter of 2024.
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