Bitcoin’s dominance rate (BTCD) reached a 1,302-day high.
The USDT dominance broke down from a parallel channel.
The Altcoin market cap attempts to break out from a channel.
Even though Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 56% in 2024, this increase has not been as pronounced in altcoins. Hence, the altcoin season has not started yet. All previous cycles have had periods in which altcoins increase much faster than BTC, collectively known as altseason.
The BTCD, USDT dominance, and the altcoin market cap are three charts that can help determine when the altcoin season will finally begin. Let’s analyze them and see if the rest of the year will be bullish for altcoins.
Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s dominance is close to setting a new cycle high. Throughout the cycle, he has called for BTCD to increase to 60%, which is very close to happening.
Zero Ika has similar thoughts, though believes that the current range of 58-60% will act as the top. Afterward, a decline toward 42% is likely.
This is because the area is an important weekly order block and Fibonacci retracement level. The March 2023 increase, which is likely to be filled, also caused a weekly imbalance.
After this target, IKA believes that the altseason will end.
El Crypto Prof also predicts an altcoin season, using the breakdown in USDT’s dominance to come to his conclusion.
Let’s analyze these two charts and see what’s in store for the rest of the year.
The wave count gives a bearish reading. It suggests that the BTC started a five-wave increase in September 2022 and is currently in the fifth and final wave (white). The sub-wave count is black, showing an ending diagonal inside an ascending wedge. Both are considered bearish signs.
If sub-waves one and five have the same length, BTCD will reach a high of 59.57%. This is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 60.43%.
Technical indicators give a bearish reading since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have created bearish divergences. So, a downward movement could follow soon.
So, despite the ongoing upward movement, the wave count, price action, and indicator readings all suggest that a top may be reached soon.
USDT Dominance Breaks Down
The weekly USDT dominance chart shows an ongoing increase inside an ascending parallel channel that has been contained since March. Both the resistance and support trend lines have been validated numerous times.
In October, the USDT dominance broke down from the channel and was validated as resistance last week (black icon).
The breakdown was combined with an RSI decline below 0 and a MACD drop to negative territory. These are both signs of a bearish trend.
If the downward movement continues, the USDT dominance could decline to 4.45%.
Altcoin Market Cap Breakout
Since March, the altcoin market cap has declined inside a descending parallel channel, which usually contains corrective structures.
After bouncing in August and creating a higher low (white icon) in September, the ALTCAP made a breakout attempt this week, which was unsuccessful (black icon).
The wave count predicts that ALTCAP has started the fifth and final wave of the upward movement beginning in December 2023. A breakout from the channel will confirm this and can begin an increase toward the next target of $1.61 trillion. This will be an upward movement of 77%.
Technical indicators support this hypothesis. The RSI increased above 50 while the MACD made a bullish cross (black circle), both signs of a bullish trend.
Altcoin Season Close
Despite their delay, all three charts analyzed suggest that altcoins will eventually outperform BTC.
While the USDT dominance has already broken down, a BTCD breakdown and ALTCAP breakout are needed to confirm the start of the altseason.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
