A new CryptoQuant report shows roughly 180 million XRP have accumulated on Binance since late February, even as the token’s price remains locked in a sideways range.
Derivatives data reinforces the bearish view: XRP’s 30-day taker buy/sell ratio is 0.97, and Coinglass data shows a dense liquidation cluster at $1.32 that could act as a downside magnet if support breaks.
Bitcoin’s hold above $70,000 is cushioning XRP for now, with the altcoin still above its 20-day EMA and RSI in neutral-to-bullish territory.
Ripple’s XRP has trended sideways since Feb. 5, trading within a horizontal channel, with resistance at $1.47 and support formed at $1.31.
Repeated attempts to break above the upper bound have been rejected, with investor sentiment mostly dampened by macro unrest.
Against that backdrop, a new report shows that XRP reserves on leading exchange Binance have remained stable or risen slightly even as the token’s performance remains tepid.
This pattern has historically preceded prolonged weakness, and a closer look at on-chain and derivatives data confirms this bearish outlook.
XRP Binance Reserves Decouple From Price
An asset’s exchange reserves measure the total amount of its tokens held in exchange wallets.
When this spikes, more coins are being deposited onto exchanges, signaling increased selling pressure in the market.
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On the other hand, when it falls, it signals investors are opting for self-custody—a pattern that reflects accumulation and weakens near-term selling pressure.
In the report, a pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst, PelinayPA, found that XRP’s price and Binance’s reserves moved in sync for a long period before recently diverging.
On-chain data shows XRP’s Binance reserve holding firm and ticking upward slightly, while spot prices continue to fall.
For context, CryptoQuant’s data show that from January through most of February, XRP’s price and Binance’s exchange reserves moved broadly in sync, with price falling when reserves rose and rising when reserves plummeted.
However, by Feb. 23, a divergence had begun to form. XRP’s Binance reserves surged above 2.80 billion through March and have held firm near 2.755 billion in recent sessions, even as XRP’s price remains sideways.
In effect, approximately 180 million additional XRP have accumulated on Binance over the past two months, while the token’s price has failed to break out of its sideways trend.
On what this means, Pelinay stated:
“Historically, when reserves increase as prices weaken, it signals growing sell-side supply on exchanges. This typically puts pressure on price, leading to continued weakness or extended consolidation. The presence of ready-to-sell liquidity often limits strong recoveries.”
XRP Futures Tilt Bearish
Across XRP’s derivatives market, on-chain data shows traders’ positioning has skewed bearish, hinting at further price troubles.
XRP’s taker buy/sell ratio has remained below 1 for most of April, indicating that aggressive sell orders have outweighed buys on perpetual futures.
As of this writing, the metric (assessed using a 30-day moving average) stands at 0.97.
Liquidation heatmaps are visual tools traders use to identify price levels where dense clusters of leveraged positions are likely to be liquidated.
These maps highlight areas of high liquidity, often color-coded to indicate intensity, with brighter zones indicating greater liquidation potential.
Usually, these price zones act as magnets for price action, as the market tends to move toward these areas to trigger liquidations and open fresh positions.
Therefore, should XRP break down from its current sideways range, the liquidity cluster near $1.32 would likely act as a downside magnet, triggering losses as many long positions are forced to close.
SomeSpot Demand Keeps XRP Afloat
XRP shares a close correlation with Bitcoin. So, because BTC has held steadily above $70,000 since April began, the stability has propped up demand among XRP spot holders.
This is reflected in readings from some of its momentum indicators. For example, XRP rests above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at press time.
The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions.
The indicator ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 signal that the asset is overbought and may be due for a decline, while values below 30 suggest it is oversold and could rebound.
At 57.16, XRP’s RSI sits in neutral-to-bullish territory, indicating that buying momentum still has room to extend before the asset becomes overbought.
It confirms that despite the bearish on-chain signals, short-term demand is gradually building.
XRP Price Prediction
If exchange reserves continue to rise, they will keep sell-side pressure elevated and outweigh any attempt at a price rally.
If this worsens, it may push XRP toward the lower line of the horizontal channel at $1.31.
A daily close below this level opens the gate to a steeper decline toward $1.11.
However, if the uptick in spot demand holds and new demand enters the market, a close above $1.47 is possible. In this case, XRP could extend its gains toward $1.71.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
