Key Takeaways
- England-Ghana draw wipes out $1.8M bet.
- World Cup volatility triggers multi-million dollar losses.
- Big losses create even bigger winners.
A crypto prediction market trader suffered a record setback at the FIFA World Cup after England’s scoreless draw against Ghana cost him an estimated $1.8 million.
The loss comes as several high-profile bettors on crypto prediction platforms have racked up millions of dollars in losses, highlighting the risks of making concentrated bets on the world’s biggest sporting event.
England Draw Delivers Another Major Blow
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence said on X that trader “weatherman12” had wagered approximately $1.8 million on England defeating Ghana in the Group L clash.
The bet was among the largest publicly tracked positions on the match.
After the match ended scoreless, the trader’s complete wager was lost.
England entered the game as favorites after an opening victory over Croatia and needed a win to secure qualification for the knockout stage.
However, Thomas Tuchel’s side struggled to break down Ghana’s organized defense and failed to find a breakthrough despite several late chances.
Prediction Market Losses Surge
On the same day, a prediction market trader known as “Supersob,” lost roughly $5.8 million across in 24-hour period.
The trader had wagered heavily against a Norwegian victory, taking “No” positions worth more than $2.6 million on Norway winning the match.
Norway ultimately prevailed 3-2, resulting in losses estimated at roughly $2.7 million.
Another large position betting against Iran also added to his losses.
Arkham Intelligence data ranked him as the third-biggest all-time loser on Polymarket with a 25% win rate across 5,230 trades and $16.7M in volume since June 2026.
The Biggest World Cup Losses So Far
Supersob’s losses add to a growing list of high-profile prediction market wagers that have gone wrong during the tournament.
One of the most widely discussed came when Spain were held to a surprise 0-0 draw by Cabo Verde.
Prediction markets assigned Spain roughly a 92% chance of victory before kickoff, while contracts backing a draw traded at around 6.6 cents.
One trader placed approximately $999,068 on Spain to win.
When Spain failed to break through Cabo Verde’s defense in Atlanta, the scoreless draw wiped out the entire position.
However, the result simultaneously generated one of the tournament’s largest gains.
According to Arkham, trader “fishalive” turned an initial position of roughly $400,000 betting against a Spanish victory into profits of about $4 million.
The trader later added another successful handicap position against Spain, lifting total gains from the match to approximately $4.7 million.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
