World Cup bets are already delivering some historic wins and losses. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
World Cup prediction markets are producing enormous swings.
Betting against football giants remains a high-risk strategy.
The World Cup is becoming a digital entertainment ecosystem.
The expanded World Cup has already delivered the kind of drama that prediction-market traders dream about — and massively fear.
From underdog performances to surprise draws, high-profile betting swings have already produced historic multimillion-dollar wins and losses on Polymarket.
We took a look at some of the highlights so far.
Online wagering, sports betting, and prediction markets carry significant financial risk. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling-related issues, please access local support networks.
World Cup Bet Loses $1M
One of the World Cup’s most talked-about betting stories came when Spain were held to a 0-0 draw by Cabo Verde on Monday.
Before kickoff, Spain entered the match as overwhelming favorites.
The reigning European champions were unbeaten in 30 matches and faced a Cabo Verde side ranked 67th in the world.
Markets heavily favored a Spanish victory, while the draw traded at just 6.6 cents.
But the confidence proved misplaced.
One Trader had set $999,068 on Spain to beat Cape Verde after the market gave a 92% chance of winning.
Spain failed to break down Cabo Verde’s defense over 90 minutes in Atlanta, resulting in a scoreless draw that completely wiped the $1 million wager.
Trader Turns $400,000 Into More Than $4 Million
However, the result created an enormous opportunity for traders on the opposite side of the market.
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham said trader “fishalive” made roughly $4 million from a $400,000 position by betting Spain would not win.
He made $4 Million from $400K in 90 minutes.
‘fishalive’ bet on Spain NOT winning against Cabo Verde in yesterday’s World Cup match. Spain had 90% chance of winning. The match was a draw.
He is now Polymarket’s NUMBER FIVE trader by all-time PnL after making another $4.7… pic.twitter.com/O2MdRxvFom
According to Arkham, the trader subsequently added another successful handicap position against Spain, bringing total gains from the match to approximately $4.7 million.
As Cabo Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, was named player of the match for his clean sheet, the mystery trader walked away with historic gains.
Argentina World Cup Bet Leaves Whale Nursing $2M Loss
Not every contrarian wager has paid off, however.
Ahead of Argentina’s opening World Cup match against Algeria on Tuesday, Lookonchain reported that whale trader “weatherman12” had committed approximately $1.81 million across two positions betting against the defending champions.
According to the tracker, the trader purchased contracts backing Argentina not to win and also took a position on Algeria +1.5 goals.
The #WorldCup match between Argentina and Algeria is about to start.
Whale "weatherman12" just spent $1.81M betting on Argentina not to win and Algeria (+1.5).
Argentina’s comfortable victory not only eliminated the possibility of a draw or upset but also covered the handicap position, leaving “weatherman12” facing losses approaching $2 million.
Hot Streak Ends as France Hands Trader First Major World Cup Loss
Not every successful trader has managed to stay ahead of the tournament’s surprises.
Earlier this week, blockchain analytics account Lookonchain highlighted a trader known as “gardenshed,” who had generated approximately $764,000 in profits in just four days through World Cup prediction markets.
According to Lookonchain, the trader had placed eight bets and won seven, giving him an impressive 87.5% win rate heading into France’s Group I clash against Senegal.
The trader won seven out of eight bets | Source: LookOnChain
Confident in another upset, Gardenshed placed a $66,200 wager predicting France would fail to win. Had Senegal earned a draw or victory, the position was expected to generate roughly $132,000 in additional profits.
Instead, the streak came to an abrupt end.
France, among the pre-tournament favorites after winning the World Cup in 2018 and reaching the final in 2022, defeated Senegal 3-1.
Fox One’s Times Square ‘Watchers’
The action on the field has not been the only source of headlines.
Fox One, the streaming platform owned by Fox, has launched one of the tournament’s more unusual promotional campaigns by hiring two TikTok creators to watch every World Cup match from inside a transparent cube in Times Square.
Content creators Austin Franklin and Kevin Akoto were selected as the platform’s official World Cup “watchers.”
The pair will each receive $50,000 to follow all 104 tournament matches over roughly a month while producing social media content and interacting with fans.
Two football fans are being paid $50,000 each to watch all 104 #WorldCup games from a specially built cube in Times Square, New York. Austin Franklin & Kevin Akoto were picked from 6,000+ who applied. Fans are sitting outside the cube watching them watch the football… pic.twitter.com/3np0viqRvj
“Fans are sitting outside the cube watching them watch the football…”
The stunt reflects how this World Cup is increasingly being consumed as a digital-first event.
While previous World Cups were dominated by traditional sportsbooks and television ratings, this tournament is seeing crypto-native traders treat matches as financial events.
For better or worse, the convergence of social media creators and blockchain-based prediction markets shows how the modern World Cup has evolved beyond the world’s largest sporting event.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
