Ripple’s custody push could benefit banks, but its impact on XRP demand remains unclear.
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Key Takeaways
Ripple-commissioned research estimates that digital-asset services could improve a regional bank’s bottom line by up to $100 million.
Chad Steingraber’s “road to $20,000 XRP” explores a speculative scenario involving institutional accumulation.
The research does not establish that banks need substantial XRP holdings to benefit.
Ripple is making a $100 million business case for banks embracing digital assets, but whether XRP holders would share in that success is a separate question.
The company’s latest custody research offers a fresh opportunity to examine commentator Chad Steingraber’s longstanding “road to $20,000 XRP” — a speculative theory built on the idea that banks will accumulate the token as a reserve asset.
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In an Oct. 21 announcement, Ripple shared findings from research it commissioned Boston Consulting Group to conduct.
The research estimates that a regional bank with $200 billion to $300 billion in assets could improve its profit and loss by up to $100 million through suitable custody decisions and digital-asset services.
“Custody is not a single use case,” Ripple wrote.
Its banking pitch encompasses tokenization, stablecoin issuance, payments and collateral management.
The company argues that custody infrastructure increasingly determines which financial services banks can build.
“It is a strategic one that shapes which digital finance services they can offer and how quickly.”
Ripple’s report landing page describes the potential profit opportunity as $80 million to $100 million.
What Steingraber Said About $20,000 XRP
Steingraber, a game developer and XRP commentator, first published his theory in 2022 and expanded it in a December 2023 thread.
The thesis outlined a journey for XRP reaching $20,000, arguing that banks accumulating the token as a reserve asset could dramatically reduce publicly available supply
He titled that thread:
“The Chad Steingraber Theory” – The Road to a $20K #XRP
His argument imagines banks holding XRP as a reserve asset, with institutional liquidity providers also maintaining substantial balances.
“#XRP will become a reserve currency asset like #GOLD,” he wrote.
Chad Steingraber first published his theory in 2022 | X (@ChadSteingraber)
In his scenario, banks and institutional liquidity providers would accumulate substantial XRP balances, reducing the amount available to other buyers.
“The public supply is important because that determines the price.”
His reasoning is that sustained institutional buying, combined with holders retaining their tokens, could force buyers to bid increasingly higher prices.
In that scenario, competition for a shrinking supply could push prices sharply higher.
Does Ripple’s Custody Push Support the Theory?
Ripple’s expanding custody business does not automatically translate into greater demand for XRP.
Its software allows banks to manage stablecoins and other crypto while retaining control of their assets.
A bank could therefore use Ripple’s technology and earn fees from digital-asset services without building a substantial XRP holding.
That could benefit both Ripple and its banking customers, but the actual implications for the token’s price are less clear.
Ripple’s research summary does not estimate how much additional XRP banks would buy or how much revenue Ripple could earn from that opportunity.
Steingraber’s theory depends solely on institutions buying XRP and holding it for extended periods.
The Scale of a $20,000 XRP Scenario
Using a starting price of $1.32, reaching $20,000 would require the token to rise 1.52 million percent, taking its price to roughly 15,152 times that level.
With a circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, that would imply a $1.2 quadrillion market capitalization.
For perspective, the entire world produced approximately $111.7 trillion in goods and services in 2024, according to World Bank data.
XRP’s implied valuation would be almost 11 times that annual global economic output.
It would also be nearly five times the $251 trillion in global public and private debt recorded by the International Monetary Fund for 2024.
At the individual level, just 100 XRP—costing $132 at the starting price—would theoretically be worth $2 million.
A holding of 1,000 would be valued at $20 million.
What Would XRP Holders Need to See?
Use of the XRP Ledger does create demand for its native token through account reserves and transaction costs.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
