Bitcoin could retest $100,000 if the Clarity Act advances in March. Here’s how regulatory clarity may impact BTC’s next move, according to ChatGPT analysis. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Mike Alfred argues Bitcoin is heavily undervalued.
The valuation dispute comes as gold and silver hit record highs.
Bitcoin’s actual fair value is far above current market levels, according to investor Mike Alfred.
He claims it is deeply undervalued, even as gold and silver surge to record highs and attract fresh investor attention.
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In a post on X, Alfred said he had re-evaluated Bitcoin price using dozens of valuation models and concluded the digital asset should be trading near $172,000.
“I stayed up all night and re-underwrote Bitcoin using 46 different methods,” Alfred wrote.
“The process was arduous but worth it. The average result implies that Bitcoin should be worth approximately $172,000 right now, an undervaluation of 95%.”
I stayed up all night and re-underwrote Bitcoin using 46 different methods. The process was arduous but worth it. The average result implies that Bitcoin should be worth approximately $172,000 right now, an undervaluation of 95%. The discrepancy between BTC and metals is extreme.
Alfred added that “the discrepancy between BTC and metals is extreme.”
The valuation drew pushback from other market participants.
One X user responded that Bitcoin’s intrinsic value should be based on network security costs rather than broader macro comparisons.
“I disagree the IV of Bitcoin is the cost to secure the network,” the user wrote. “That is around $67,000 right now.”
The user added that even using a midpoint between network support levels and speculative peaks, Bitcoin’s implied value remained far below Alfred’s estimate.
“The IV of Bitcoin is nowhere near $172,000 yet,” the user said.
Alfred dismissed the criticism, replying: “You used 1 method. I used 46. We are not the same.”
Gold and Silver Rally
The debate comes as precious metals rally sharply, with gold and silver pushing to record highs amid rising volatility.
CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju said the current move in gold is notable not just for the price level, but for the speed and character of the advance.
“Gold, in particular, is entering a phase where the headline is not the new high; it’s the path it’s taking to get there,” Olanrewaju said.
“We’ve already seen spot gold hit record highs above $5,500 this week, and the broader conversation has shifted from ‘why is it up?’ to ‘why is it moving like this?’”
According to Olanrewaju, volatility indicators suggest gold may be entering a faster-moving phase rather than topping out.
“At the time of writing, the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has moved up around the 30-handle lately, a level that historically signals when gold stops being a slow signal and becomes a fast one,” he said.
“The last time it reached this level was during the 2008 financial crisis.”
Echoes of Bullish Bitcoin Outlooks
Despite Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, Alfred has continued to express strong long-term conviction.
In a Christmas Day post, he said he would liquidate his entire Bitcoin holdings and delete his X account if Bitcoin fails to reach $1 million by the end of 2033.
In a Dec. 27 post, he claimed that traders he described as ‘the worst’ he knows had shifted into silver and sold their Bitcoin positions.
“What happens next will be obvious to anyone who isn’t a vegetable.”
Alfred’s views echo a broader wave of bullish forecasts across the crypto industry.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Strategy’s Michael Saylor has also repeatedly said Bitcoin could rise above $1 million over the long term.
Samson Mow, chief executive of Pixelmatic, has also reiterated that view.
“Since getting into Bitcoin, what I’ve consistently found is that everything always happens faster than I expect,” Mow wrote in a March post on X.
“That’s why my prediction is for a fast run to $1 million.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
