Key Takeaways
- David Hoffman says the “ETH is money” thesis has largely failed.
- Leo Lanza believes Ethereum’s price could reach six figures.
- Analysts remain sharply divided on Ethereum’s long-term price.
Bankless founder David Hoffman’s decision to sell his Ethereum holdings after declaring that the long-running “ETH is money” thesis had effectively run its course has sparked pushback from some crypto analysts.
One analyst argued that Ethereum’s price could eventually reach six-figure valuations as the blockchain secures more global assets.
Hoffman Says ‘ETH Is Money’ Thesis Has Run Its Course
In a Bankless blog post published Tuesday, Hoffman said Ethereum had succeeded as an open-source blockchain network but failed to fully realize the vision of ETH becoming a dominant form of global money.
“The reason I sold my ETH accordingly is not because I am bearish ETH per se, but rather that I think the ‘ETH is money’ thesis has played out,” Hoffman wrote.
Hoffman argued that Ethereum’s architecture was designed to maximize value for applications and layer-2 networks rather than for ETH itself.
He described Ethereum as “a giver, not a taker,” saying the network provides secure blockspace and decentralized finance settlement “at cost.”
“It’s hard to square ‘ETH is money’ with ‘Ethereum is a giver, not a taker,’” Hoffman wrote.
“Architecturally, ETH is not prioritized in Ethereum, and this is a feature, not a bug.”
He also argued that smart-contract blockchains are ultimately valued by fees and revenue generation, pointing to rival networks such as Solana, BNB Chain, and TRON as examples of chains whose token performance tracked network revenue growth.
Hoffman said Ethereum’s dominance weakened after 2021 amid rising competition and changing market sentiment.
He added that stablecoin adoption on Ethereum largely strengthened the US dollar rather than ETH itself.
“The utility Ethereum provides is helping increase the monetary network of whatever is money,” he wrote.
Leo Lanza Pushes Back, Predicts Six-Figure Ethereum Price
Some analysts, however, rejected Hoffman’s conclusion.
Leo Lanza, a crypto analyst building what he described as an “economic security model” for Ethereum, said the mathematics behind proof-of-stake security suggests Ethereum will grow significantly as more value moves onto the network.
“The model predicts a 6-figure price per ETH,” Lanza wrote.
“The math does not support David’s claim that Ethereum can thrive while ETH, the monetary commodity securing it, fails to appreciate.”
Lanza argued that Ethereum’s security budget must scale alongside the value of assets secured on-chain, including tokenized stocks.
“As more assets are tokenized, Ethereum’s security budget has to scale with the value it secures,” he wrote.
“That means ETH doesn’t just benefit from adoption. It must reprice higher for Ethereum to safely secure the next wave of global assets.”
According to Lanza, ETH is currently trading below its “floor valuation,”
He added that Ethereum has historically not remained below that level for extended periods.
Why Lanza Believes ETH Will Rise Alongside TVL
In a re-shared May 16 post expanding on the thesis, Lanza argued that Ethereum’s market value must rise alongside total value secured, or TVS — often referred to interchangeably with total value locked, or TVL.
Using a hypothetical example in which Ethereum’s market capitalization falls to $1 while the network secures $1 trillion in tokenized assets, Lanza said it would become economically rational for an attacker to acquire enough Ethereum to compromise the network.
“The more valuable Ethereum becomes as infrastructure, the more valuable ETH must become as collateral securing that infrastructure,” Lanza wrote.
“Markets naturally pressure ETH upward toward a level where attacking the network becomes prohibitively expensive.”
He compared the dynamic to bank capital requirements scaling with liabilities and military spending rising.
“What’s interesting is the very act of trying to attack the network strengthens its security budget by forcing the price of ETH higher,” Lanza added.
Not All Analysts Expect Massive Ethereum Price Gains
Not all analysts are convinced Ethereum is headed for explosive gains.
Dominic Basulto, an analyst at Motley Fool, said Ethereum may only reach about $5,000 by 2030. He argued that some traders need to temper their expectations.
“The growing consensus is that Ethereum could hit $10,000 by then, and some think that it might skyrocket as high as $55,000,” Basulto wrote.
Adding: “Unfortunately, crypto investors likely need to curb their expectations.”
Basulto said Ethereum increasingly resembles a mature software company rather than an early-stage high-growth technology asset, making annual returns closer to 20% more realistic.
“At 10 years old, Ethereum is easily out of the ‘early stage start-up’ zone, and it’s likely out of the ‘high-growth’ zone as well,” he wrote.
Using what he described as “back-of-the-envelope calculations,” Basulto said a 20% annual growth rate would imply an ETH price of roughly $5,000 by 2030 — only modestly above Ethereum’s previous all-time high near $4,954.
Basulto also questioned the widely shared prediction that asset tokenization and AI would provide the catalysts bulls expect to drive Ethereum dramatically higher.
He referenced Tom Lee’s prediction that both RWA and AI would drive Ethereum to $62,000 and beyond.
“… but that simply hasn’t happened, and most likely never will,” Basulto said.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
