Key Takeaways
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin completed its post-halving cycle in Q4 2025.
- Cowen argues that, while countertrend rallies are likely, overall growth remains constrained.
- The analyst said crypto’s risk-reward profile currently favors capital preservation over expansion.
Bitcoin’s price may have already peaked in 2025 and is unlikely to enter a new sustained bull market in 2026, according to prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who says market conditions now resemble a post-cycle “digestion phase” rather than the start of a fresh rally.
Post-Halving Peak Without Euphoria
In a quarterly macro risk memo published on Thursday, Cowen said Bitcoin peaked in the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with the historical pattern of post-halving cycles.
However, he noted that the latest cycle differed sharply from previous tops in 2017 and 2021, which were driven by widespread retail speculation.
“Unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria,” Cowen wrote.
According to the memo, retail participation, speculative breadth and social engagement failed to reach historically elevated levels even as Bitcoin made new highs, a structure Cowen said closely mirrors mid-2019.
“This structure closely resembles mid-2019, when Bitcoin rallied sharply without igniting broad speculation,” he said.
Choppy Declines for Bitcoin Price?
Cowen cautioned that an apathy-driven peak does not necessarily imply a prolonged or severe bear market.
He pointed to 2019, when Bitcoin’s drawdown was shorter than the extended declines that followed earlier euphoric peaks.
“Apathy-driven peaks do not necessarily lead to deeper or longer bear markets than euphoric peaks,” Cowen wrote.
However, he warned that such phases tend to produce uneven price action.
“Apathy-driven declines tend to be choppier and more uneven, characterized by repeated countertrend rallies rather than a single capitulation,” he said.
Macro Backdrop Limits Upside
Cowen said broader macroeconomic conditions currently reinforce a cautious outlook for crypto and Bitcoin’s price.
While economic growth appears to be slowing, he argued that conditions are not weak enough to trigger a significant expansion in global liquidity.
“The economy shows signs of cooling, but remains resilient enough to limit aggressive liquidity expansion,” he wrote.
As a result, Cowen said the risk-reward profile for crypto remains tilted toward defensive positioning rather than aggressive accumulation.
“The broader risk-reward profile for crypto remains skewed toward capital preservation rather than expansion,” he said.
Constrained Growth
Cowen emphasized that his analysis was not intended to forecast short-term price movements or provide explicit price targets.
Instead, he said the goal was to assess risk asymmetry and market structure.
“Rallies are likely, and select assets may perform well,” Cowen wrote, “but structural upside remains constrained until liquidity, participation, and on-chain conditions reset.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
