Key Takeaways
The upcoming week promises to be pivotal for global financial markets as central banks worldwide prepare to announce their interest rate decisions.
The European Central Bank set the stage last week, cutting its rates by 0.25% in a move that was widely anticipated and thus had a muted impact on markets.
However, the real drama is yet to come as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan prepare to make pivotal policy announcements that could have far-reaching implications for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.
Starting off strong, the Federal Reserve is expected to take a big step this week, with a highly anticipated quarter-point rate cut on the agenda.
The 25 bps cut would mark a swift reversal from the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes during the pandemic era when inflation concerns dominated the economic landscape. It would also underscore the Fed’s growing concern about slowing growth and trade tensions.
In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to hold steady, though a surprise rate cut cannot be entirely ruled out. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street has been walking a tightrope, balancing the need to support a slowing economy with the risk of stoking inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, which recently broke ranks with its peers by raising rates, is likely to maintain its newfound hawkish stance, marking a sharp divergence from the ultra-low rate environment that has characterized its monetary policy for years.
Central Bank | Date And Time | Expectation |
---|---|---|
Federal Reserve | Sept. 18, 2024 – 6 PM UTC | 0.25% rate cut |
Brazil’s Central Bank | Sept. 18, 2024 – 9 PM UTC | 0.25% rate hike |
Bank of England | Sept. 19, 2024 – 11 AM UTC | Rates to remain unchanged |
People’s Bank of China | Sept. 21, 2024 – 1.30 AM UTC | Rates to remain unchanged |
Bank of Japan | Sept. 21, 2024 – 2.30 AM UTC | Rates to remain unchanged |
Investors are increasingly seeking clarity, especially given the mixed U.S. economic indicators.
While job growth has moderated and more people have entered the workforce, layoffs remain relatively subdued. Inflation has eased, though recent data suggests that service prices, such as rent, may still be stubborn.
Investor confidence in the economy has supported a strong stock market performance in 2024, but concerns about a potential rise in unemployment have recently rattled markets. August and September witnessed significant selloffs amid these fears.
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.1%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 5.0%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.4%. However, pre-market indicators suggest a more cautious start on Monday, Sept. 16, with the Dow flat and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 expected to decline slightly.
“We agree it is likely to be a close call, but we also believe the Fed will make the right move and go 50 basis points,” said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli. “The case for a 50 bp cut seems clear to us: various iterations of a Taylor Rule imply policy is currently a full percentage point or more too restrictive,” he added.
Bitcoin (BTC) opened the trading week 3% lower, at around $58,400. However, the reigning crypto king briefly had topped $60,000 over the weekend, buoyed by positive U.S. economic data.
This optimism was further reflected in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw over $263 million pour in on Friday—the highest since July. Ether ETFs also saw rare inflows during this period.
However, the crypto market’s momentum was short-lived, as it followed Asian stocks downward on Monday.
Ethereum (ETH) led a broad retreat among major altcoins, plummeting 5.5% in the past 24 hours—its steepest daily drop since early August. Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), and BNB Chain (BNB) also fell, with BNB suffering the least.
Futures traders betting on higher BTC prices suffered losses of over $143 million due to the market’s sudden downturn, according to CoinGlass data . The BTC/ETH ratio reached a four-year low, indicating a relative preference for ETH.
Despite this setback, traders hold out hope that the upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could rekindle market enthusiasm.