PlanB says Ethereum's long-term outperformance thesis is effectively dead — but why? | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
PlanB says Ethereum’s decade-long performance against Bitcoin suggests it has lost its ability to outperform BTC.
The Bitcoin analyst called Ethereum’s 2022 transition to proof-of-stake “suicide.”
Ethereum bulls remain optimistic despite the criticism.
Prominent Bitcoin analyst PlanB said recent Ethereum price charts imply its long-term investment case relative to Bitcoin is effectively “dead,” citing a decade of underperformance against BTC.
The comments come as he continued to argue that the network’s shift to proof-of-stake may have permanently damaged its ability to outperform the world’s largest crypto in the future.
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In a series of posts on X on June 7, the creator of Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow model pointed to Ethereum’s decade-long performance relative to Bitcoin, saying the data showed little evidence of sustained relative strength across multiple market cycles.
“Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights,” PlanB wrote.
He noted that Ethereum was trading at roughly 0.026 BTC per ETH, a level similar to where the pair traded in March 2016, adding that Ethereum had “done worse than Bitcoin over the last 10 years.”
He added that it had failed to produce the kind of strong relative rally seen during previous bull markets.
Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights:
– ETH has done worse than bitcoin over last 10 years!! Still at 0.026 BTC, like March 2016. – No ETH bull market pump in 2023/2024, like it did in 2017 and 2021… pic.twitter.com/JOVOQVAWy0
When another X user suggested the chart showed Ethereum was effectively dead, PlanB replied:
“Harsh, but that is indeed what the chart seems to imply: no long term ETH/BTC uptrend, and no more ETH/BTC bull market pump&dump.”
Previous market cycles produced sharp bursts of outperformance in 2017 and 2021, but the latest bull market has not generated a comparable move, according to the chart cited by PlanB.
PlanB’s comments were focused on Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin rather than the viability of the Ethereum network itself.
From his perspective, the lack of a long-term uptrend in the ETH/BTC ratio undermines any thesis that ETH can generate sustained gains relative to Bitcoin.
Why PlanB Believes Ethereum Has Underperformed
In a follow-up post, PlanB linked Ethereum’s recent relative weakness directly to one of the network’s most significant technical changes.
“Ah yes, I forgot, in 2022 Ethereum transitioned from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake for climate reasons,” he wrote in response to an X user.
Ah yes I forgot, in 2022 Ethereum transitioned from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake for climate reasons. Suicide IMO, might indeed explain the missing ETH/BTC bull market pump.
Ethereum completed “The Merge” in September 2022, replacing its proof-of-work consensus mechanism with proof-of-stake.
The upgrade reduced the network’s energy consumption by more than 99% and became one of the most consequential changes in crypto history.
PlanB, however, has long argued that proof-of-work provides stronger monetary and security properties than proof-of-stake systems.
From his perspective, proof-of-work ties network security to real-world energy expenditure and production costs, while proof-of-stake relies on token ownership and validator participation.
PlanB also contends that Ethereum’s monetary policy has changed multiple times throughout its history, making it less predictable than Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply.
Long-Running Criticism of Ethereum
The latest remarks are consistent with criticisms PlanB has made for years regarding Ethereum’s structure.
In April 2025, he wrote that “Ethereum is really not looking good now.
“I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think shitcoins like ETH, that are centralized & premined, have PoS instead of PoW, switch supply schedule at will, are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get,” he said.
In another post, he cited several concerns, including the network’s growing hardware requirements and the influence of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
Ethereum supporters reject those claims, arguing that proof-of-stake has operated successfully since The Merge while dramatically reducing energy consumption.
They also point to staking rewards, network upgrades, and growing institutional adoption as evidence that the network remains competitive.
Ethereum Bulls Point to Strengths, Despite Price Weakness
Not all analysts share PlanB’s outlook.
Speaking on a recent episode of the Milk Road podcast, analyst John Gillen argued that Ethereum’s long-term investment case continues to strengthen despite recent price weakness.
Gillen suggested the market is shifting from short-term traders to investors focused on Ethereum’s longer-term fundamentals.
“I think what we’re seeing here is just a transference of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all digital assets, really from the weak hands who are looking for short-term speculation to hands that are very convicted in this long-term thesis ” he said.
He added that he believes “all these things resolve to the upside at some point here soon.”
“The market is telling you that it believes in Ethereum, and the fundamentals of Ethereum are getting stronger and stronger,” Gillen said.
Adding: “Price will result to the upside.”
Pointing to on-chain data, Gillen argued that several key metrics support a constructive outlook for the network.
He said that data showed an “all-time high usage of the network” and “all-time lows for fees.”
Gillen added that Ethereum’s current development roadmap appears to be delivering results.
“So, the strategy that they’re running, I think, is working incredibly well, and will continue to do so,” he said.
Tom Lee Remains Bullish Despite Ethereum Price Weakness
PlanB’s criticism also comes in sharp contrast to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who continues to argue Ethereum’s long-term outlook will hold exceptional growth.
Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris on June 2, Lee said investors betting against Bitcoin and Ethereum were effectively “selling at the bottom.”
Lee reiterated his belief that Ethereum could benefit significantly from the growth of tokenized assets and artificial-intelligence-related infrastructure.
“If a thesis is correct and Ethereum is going to break out of this consolidation, and the consolidation breakout is tokenization and AI, I think that’s probably 50x or so — significant upside for Ethereum,” Lee said.
He also outlined a more conservative scenario in which Ethereum reaches roughly $22,000.
According to Lee, the growth in tokenization could create a market worth hundreds of trillions of dollars, with Ethereum serving as one of the primary settlement and infrastructure layers.
“If a market is going to go to $300 trillion of asset value, Ethereum isn’t going to stay at $100 billion and $200 billion of total network value,” Lee said.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
