Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin fell below $70,315, the first breakdown level in I/O Fund’s bearish scenario.
- The firm identified $62,450 as the next threshold before its $30,000 outlook gains confirmation.
- Reaching $2 million from Friday’s low would require a gain of 2,865%.
Bitcoin has broken below the first price level identified in I/O Fund’s warning of a potential decline toward $30,000, putting its bearish scenario back in focus a week after the analysis was published.
CoinGlass data showed Bitcoin reaching an intraday low of $67,449 on Nov. 13, below the firm’s initial $70,315 threshold.
The move advances the scenario behind I/O Fund’s $2 million Bitcoin thesis and near-term crash warning, raising concerns as the price approaches its second drawdown target.
Bitcoin Falls Below First Breakdown Level
In his Nov. 6 analysis, I/O Fund technical portfolio manager Knox Ridley outlined a direct decline that would require successive breaks below $70,315 and $62,450 before targeting the $30,000 region.
Friday’s low was 4.1% beneath the first threshold. Bitcoin would need to fall another 7.4% from that low to reach the second.
CoinGlass showed BTC trading around $69,331 when checked, recovering some ground while remaining below $70,315.
Its Nov. 6 closing price was around $75,747, putting Friday’s low nearly 11% below that level.
That leaves $62,450 as the next test within Ridley’s framework, rather than establishing $30,000 as a destination.
Ridley also outlined an alternative in which Bitcoin holds $62,450 and rallies toward $105,000–$117,925 before another downturn toward $30,000–$40,000.
A breakout above $126,300 would instead signal an early end to the bear cycle in his assessment.
What Would $30K or $2M Mean From Here?
Despite the downside scenarios, Ridley maintained his longer-term position:
“Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin reaching $2 million remains intact, but the path there is unlikely to be a straight line.”
Using Friday’s $67,449 low as a reference illustrates the distance between those outcomes:
| Bitcoin price |
Change from $67,449 |
| $62,450 |
−7.4% |
| $40,000 |
−40.7% |
| $30,000 |
−55.5% |
| $2 million |
+2,865.2% |
At Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins, a $2 million price would imply a fully diluted valuation of $42 trillion.
That would exceed the estimated value of all above-ground gold and dwarf the market capitalizations of the world’s largest listed companies.
Using CompaniesMarketCap’s valuations when checked on Nov. 13, the scale would look like this:
| Asset |
Approximate valuation |
$42 trillion Bitcoin compared with it |
| Gold |
$27.03 trillion |
1.6 times larger |
| Apple |
$5.16 trillion |
8.1 times larger |
| Nvidia |
$4.01 trillion |
10.5 times larger |
| Microsoft |
$3.88 trillion |
10.8 times larger |
| Alphabet |
$3.63 trillion |
11.6 times larger |
| Amazon |
$2.89 trillion |
14.5 times larger |
Together, those five technology companies were worth $19.57 trillion.
Bitcoin’s fully diluted valuation at $2 million would be more than twice that combined figure.
Why Some Market Figures Reject Million-Dollar Bitcoin Forecasts
The scale of those valuations has drawn direct challenges from market commentators.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, rejected the prospect of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 in an August interview with Cointelegraph.
“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen said.
His argument focused on the scale of investment required.
Thielen estimated that Bitcoin would need another $15 trillion in capital to reach that price, questioning whether sufficient demand could arrive within four years.
Thielen also stopped short of ruling out $1 million forever.
“I don’t want to say never,” he said, while describing a million dollars as “really a high number.”
Investor and entrepreneur Gary Cardone has separately attacked an even higher forecast.
In a September exchange over $5 million Bitcoin, he called the target a “pipe dream.”
At maximum supply, $5 million per Bitcoin would imply a $105 trillion valuation.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
