Key Takeaways
- I/O Fund has maintained its $2 million Bitcoin target while warning of a potential decline toward $30,000–$40,000.
- Its bearish outlook depends on key price levels.
- Tom Lee has previously discussed BTC reaching $2 million, citing its potential to rival gold.
Bitcoin could eventually reach $2 million, according to I/O Fund — but the investment research firm warns that its next major move could first take it toward $30,000.
Technical portfolio manager Knox Ridley’s Nov. 6 analysis maintains the firm’s bullish long-term outlook while outlining two clear paths to a deeper decline.
Bitcoin Could Fall to $30K — or Rally Before Reversing
Ridley’s directly bearish scenario requires Bitcoin to break below $70,315 and then $62,450, which would support a decline toward $30,000.
“This will confirm that we are in the final swing of this bear cycle, which will be generally targeting the $30,000 region. Once this is confirmed, we will be able to get a more precise buy zone,” Ridley wrote.
The alternative allows a recovery toward $105,000–$117,925 before another downturn toward $30,000–$40,000.
“If we hold below $126,300, we will then turn lower toward the $40,000 – $30,000 region,” Ridley added.
A Bitcoin breakout above $126,300 would instead signal to I/O Fund that the bear cycle had ended early.
Ridley links the downside risk to dollar strength, rising Treasury yields and tightening global liquidity.
“This means the cost of collateral in the form of US treasuries goes higher, while the cost to access dollars globally goes higher,” the portfolio manager added.
“This restricts excess capital in the system, which is always felt with risk assets around the margins – Bitcoin being one of the most consistently correlated.”
Why I/O Fund Still Sees $2 Million Bitcoin
The firm first disclosed its $2 million target in an Aug. 21 report, arguing that the end of the bear market could create the conditions for another substantial advance.
“Our long-term technical roadmap points to Bitcoin eventually trading above $2 million,” Ridley wrote.
In that report, the firm predicted that Bitcoin would need to remain above $25,255 during the bear cycle — a requirement it has met so far.
Beyond its chart analysis, I/O Fund argues that government debt and potential currency debasement could support demand for Bitcoin as a scarce asset.
Its thesis rests partly on investors increasingly valuing Bitcoin’s limited supply as governments face pressure to finance persistent borrowing.
Tom Lee Has Also Outlined a $2 Million BTC Valuation
I/O Fund is not the only one discussing a seven-figure Bitcoin price.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee has previously argued that Bitcoin could reach $2 million if its network value catches up with gold.
As CCN previously reported, Lee told CNBC:
“If Bitcoin had the same network value as gold, and gold is not as scarce as Bitcoin, that would put Bitcoin at around $2 million.”
Lee also pointed to growth in Bitcoin users and activity as support for its valuation through network effects.
During the CNBC appearance, Lee said:
“Wallets and activity per wallet still explain, even now, 87% of the rise of Bitcoin, so as long as more people use it and they’re transacting it, the value of Bitcoin should go up. It’s a network effect.”
What Would $2 Million BTC Be Worth?
Moving from $30,000 to $2 million would require Bitcoin to rise around 6,567%, reaching about 66.7 times its starting price.
At $2 million per coin, BTC would have a fully diluted valuation of $42 trillion, based on its maximum supply of 21 million BTC.
| Bitcoin price |
Valuation at maximum supply |
| $30,000 |
$630 billion |
| $40,000 |
$840 billion |
| $2 million |
$42 trillion |
At a fully diluted valuation of $42 trillion, Bitcoin would be worth roughly eight times Apple’s market value, almost 10 times Nvidia’s and more than 10 times Microsoft’s.
It would also be worth more than twice the combined market capitalization of Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, at $19.91 trillion.
That scale makes the forecast highly ambitious.
A $42 trillion valuation would require a massive expansion in adoption among institutions, governments, and individual investors.
It would also require sustained demand as prices rise, with buyers absorbing sales from holders taking profits at major milestones such as $100,000, $500,000, and $1 million.
However, BTC can reach $2 million, particularly in the absence of a deadline and with inflation potentially lifting future nominal valuations.
