Key Takeaways
- Bernstein raises its Bitcoin outlook despite warnings of a bear market.
- Multiple prominent analysts remain bullish.
- Technical analysts warn the opposite.
Bitcoin’s latest price slide has not shaken Wall Street’s most bullish forecasters, with brokerage Bernstein sharply raising its medium-term outlook and reiterating a long-term target of $1 million by 2033.
But the optimism contrasts with increasingly dire warnings from technical analysts who say the world’s largest cryptocurrency has already slipped into a new bear market.
Bernstein Lifts Targets
Bernstein analysts noted that the recent 30% drop in Bitcoin’s price has done little to dent the structural demand underpinning the market, citing minimal exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows despite heavy selling pressure.
The firm now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, up sharply from its previous forecast, and sees the current cycle peaking in 2027 at around $200,000.
Bernstein also noted that it believes the Bitcoin cycle has broken the traditional four-year pattern and is now in an “elongated bull cycle.”
“In view of the recent market correction, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling,” Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, said, referencing Bernstein’s outlook.
“We are moving our 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000,” he added.
Bernstein also said its long-term 2033 price target remains firmly at $1 million.
Other Bullish Bitcoin Price Forecasts Remain
The brokerage’s upgraded forecast joins a chorus of optimistic predictions as the year draws to a close.
Mike Alfred, a technology investor, said this week that Bitcoin will likely hit $315,000 next year, while Ethereum will soar to $20,000.
He echoed that Bitcoin “was not in a bull market since 2021” and is now entering a “stage 1 uptrend.”
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has also remained bullish on Bitcoin, claiming it will likely reach $250,000 “within a few months.”
Analysts Warn of Bear Market
However, not everyone is convinced.
A growing number of chart watchers say Bitcoin’s technical structure has deteriorated sharply and that the bull run of 2024–2025 is firmly over.
Valdrin Tahiri, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin has delivered a “clear and alarming signal” by breaking below a long-term parallel channel that has guided prices for months.
“After months of trading within a significant long-term parallel channel, the price has broken down decisively, a move that analysts confirm as the start of a major bear market,” Tahiri said.
“Chart patterns and technical indicators are mirroring the conditions seen at the beginning of the 2021 crash, fueling fears that the bull run of 2024–2025 is over.”
Tahiri said the technical picture is now “overwhelmingly bearish,” with momentum indicators turning negative and historical parallels suggesting further downside.
Analysts tracking support zones say the next major level sits near $70,500. Failure to reclaim the broken channel quickly could deepen the sell-off.
“Unless Bitcoin manages an immediate and powerful reversal to reclaim the broken channel, extreme caution is warranted,” Tahiri added.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
