Could Bitcoin really hit $200k? | Source: Image created with Gemini
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Key Takeaways
Famed crypto investor Mike Alfred said he is highly bullish on Bitcoin.
Alfred believes metrics like Bitcoin per share and MNAV are misleading.
Analysts caution that the broader crypto market may be entering a long-term bear phase.
Bitcoin’s price could climb to $150,000–$200,000, according to investor Mike Alfred, who said the “digital gold” remains the strongest long-term asset in global markets.
In a new podcast, the investor argued that certain Bitcoin-linked equities may deliver 5-to 10-fold gains if his forecast comes to pass.
However, the market is still experiencing a broad downturn, with analysts warning of a looming long-term bear market.
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In an interview with investment journalist Natalie Brunell, Alfred said he remains “extremely bullish” on Bitcoin, calling it “the most important asset maybe in all of human history to own.”
He described Bitcoin as “probably the most de-risked large-scale asset in history” and noted that even non-specialist retail holders in his own family own BTC rather than other equities.
“It’s the asset that my mother owns, my father-in-law owns,” he said.
“They don’t own iron, they don’t own cypher, they don’t own MSTR, but they own Bitcoin,” he added.
Despite his skepticism toward most Bitcoin-treasury companies, Alfred said “a really well-run treasury company… can achieve excess performance over Bitcoin.”
Alfred shared his bullish prediction for Bitcoin’s price.
“It’s just a matter of time, if I’m right, that Bitcoin’s going to $150,000 or $200,000 before that equity actually goes up,” he said, adding it “could potentially, like a Bitcoin miner, go up in an exponential fashion.”
Alfred also said he prefers equity exposure over preferred securities:
“I haven’t invested in any of the preferred(s)… It just doesn’t fit my strategy. I’m an equity-focused investor and I’m comfortable with volatility.”
MNAV is a “Fairy”
Alfred said many observers focus on metrics such as Bitcoin per share without understanding how layers of debt sit ahead of common shareholders.
“Remember, if you structure a lot of securities on a cap structure for a company, all those things sit on top of the Bitcoin,” he said.
“So the heavier the weight of those things, the less this whole idea of Bitcoin per share really matters.”
He argued that retail buyers often overlook the presence of multiple tranches of debt and convertibles, which directly affect what common equity is actually entitled to.
“Bitcoin per share… doesn’t really mean anything at the common equity level,” he said.
“If you have different tranches of debt, you’ve got convertibles, et cetera, on top of it. I just don’t think a lot of retail understood that.”
He extended this criticism to market net asset value, rejecting the concept and describing it as a kind of folklore within the Bitcoin-equity community.
“This idea of mNAV to me is sort of like a fairy in the forest,” he said.
“I’ve always thought of it as a fairy… A lot of other people thought of it as a hard thing that had some realness to it, some hardness to it. And I’ve always viewed it as a fairy.”
CCN’s Market Outlook
While Alfred sees the possibility of dramatic upside, CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri warned that the broader crypto market has slipped into a long-term bearish structure.
According to Tahiri, the sector “is slipping into a long-term bear market,” with momentum indicators showing clear weakness.
Tahiri said wave counts, price action, and momentum indicators “all suggest that the upward trend has ended and a bear market has begun.”
The next major support zones for total crypto market capitalization lie at $2.92 trillion and $2.50 trillion.
Bitcoin dominance has also weakened, breaking down from an ascending trendline in place since September.
Tahiri said this “confirms that the ongoing bounce has ended” and predicts a move toward 58.50% dominance.
“A rebound… could offer a brief relief rally before the larger downtrend resumes. However, such moves are likely to be short-lived,” he wrote.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
