Benjamin Cowen's recent bearish Bitcoin call is being met with positivity... an extremely rare occurrence on crypto Twitter. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin’s price could revisit February lows after a brief bounce.
Traders praised his willingness to acknowledge uncertainty.
The forecast contrasts with Cowen’s long-held skepticism of short-term predictions.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Monday he believes Bitcoin could soon fall toward $70,000 before eventually revisiting its February lows, going as far as to say he will publicly admit he was wrong if it doesn’t come true.
The comments follow multiple previous occasions of Cowen admitting that short-term market forecasts are inherently difficult, something that seems to have earned respect from many traders.
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“Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric Brownian motion,” Cowen wrote on X.
“…but… if I had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce.”
However, Cowen said he expects the recovery to be temporary.
“But after the bounce is over (likely a few days to a week or so), I do think BTC will head back to the lows from February 2026,” he wrote.
On February 6, Bitcoin hit a price low of $60,074, marking the lowest level of the year so far.
Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric brownian motion.
..but..
if i had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce.
The decline was part of a broader pullback in February, when Bitcoin fell around 15% after trading near record highs of approximately $97,860 in January.
Other notable lows that month included around $72,884 on February 3, with prices also dipping below $63,000 on several occasions.
The analyst, who has built a large following through his macro-focused Bitcoin market analysis, added an unusual public caveat to the prediction.
“If I’m wrong about BTC revisiting the lows from February, I will quote tweet this and simply say ‘I was wrong.’ And then I will let every bull dunk away.”
Traders Praise Cowen’s Transparency
The Bitcoin price forecast prompted widespread discussion among traders and followers, many of whom praised Cowen for publicly acknowledging uncertainty.
One X user wrote: “You are honestly the most level headed, kind, humble but clear and decisive, human that I’ve come across in crypto.
“It’s a shame that these things are remarkable but thank you for maintaining those qualities/values in the face of everything that comes your way.”
Some traders agreed with Cowen’s thesis, though they were not happy about it.
Benjamin Cowen’s BTC price prediction was met with rare genuine positivity | Source: X.
“Logically you are right but I hope you are wrong,” the user wrote.
Others focused on Cowen’s track record and educational content rather than the specific market call.
“It’s refreshing that you acknowledge that you could be wrong and still put this out there, bravo,” said an X user.
Cowen Against Price Predictions
Cowen’s latest forecast also stands out because he has frequently argued that investors should place little weight on short-term price predictions.
In October 2024, he wrote that making public forecasts about financial markets is “very challenging” and acknowledged his own history of incorrect calls.
“No one here has a perfect track record, including and especially myself,” Cowen wrote.
“My track record is littered with some really bad calls at times, and my stubbornness did not allow me to pivot as soon as I could have if I had been more willing to listen to what the market was telling me.”
He also criticized the culture surrounding market predictions on social media.
“Many on here demand price predictions but if your prediction is not perfect, the community will never let you forget about it,” Cowen said.
The analyst noted that profitability matters more than forecasting accuracy.
“At the end of the day, being right does not mean anything,” he wrote. “It is better to make money and be wrong than to not make money and be right.”
This post is to show you how price predictions are meaningless (including my own).
We all make price predictions. Most do not come true, or if they do, they occur on vastly different timeframes than what was predicted.
I would not put that much weight into price predictions
During the interview, Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s price could eventually break below $40,000 before establishing a cycle low later in 2026.
“I would argue that the most likely outcome eventually … we kind of come back down and sort of test these prior lows at $60,000, and I would say that there’s a good chance we’ll go below 60,” Cowen said.
The analyst said his view is based largely on historical four-year Bitcoin cycle behavior.
“I’m mostly in the time-based capitulation camp,” he said.
“I think we need to give it towards October before I really start to think the market might turn around.”
Cowen argued that previous bear markets saw prolonged weakness before recovery and suggested the current cycle could follow a similar path.
He also pointed to macroeconomic risks, describing the current backdrop as “really unfavorable” and citing inflationary pressures, labor-market weakness, and recession concerns.
Reviewing historical Bitcoin drawdowns, Cowen said a move to $40,000 would still be relatively mild compared with previous bear markets.
“If Bitcoin were to drop to $40,000, that is about a 68% drop from the high,” he said.
“You would still have diminishing losses. If we only have a 68% drop, that is still the best bear market we’ve ever had.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
