Could Bitcoin really fall as low as some bearish analysts are saying? " Source: CCN
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s price trajectory divides opinion between bulls and bears.
Ivan on Tech warns of a drop toward $50,000, while bulls like Mike Alfred and Joe Burnett expect a major upside squeeze.
Risks remain despite strong inflows.
Bitcoin’s latest surge toward the mid-$70,000 range has reignited a fierce debate over the crypto’s enduring bear market, with analysts debating whether the rally may be temporary while others argue a major upside squeeze is looming.
Although Bitcoin’s price has climbed in recent sessions, pushed on by geopolitical tensions and strong institutional inflows, the divide between bullish and bearish forecasts appears to be widening.
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Crypto analyst and author Ivan on Tech struck a notably cautious tone, arguing that Bitcoin has yet to complete a full market reset despite the recent rebound.
“Bitcoin: the big flush… I don’t think we’ve had it yet. I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom,” he wrote on X.
Adding: “Trend is still down. The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out.”
Bitcoin: the big flush…
I don’t think we’ve had it yet I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom You can pray for it of course 😈 but it won’t help
Trend is still down The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out I will reconsider this stance in case bull strength returns It’s just…
— Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania (@IvanOnTech) April 13, 2026
Ivan said he would only reconsider his bearish stance if stronger bullish momentum emerges, but stressed “it’s just not here right now.”
He concluded: “For now – BEAR BEAR BEAR BEAR still.”
His view implies that the recent recovery toward $70,000–$75,000 may merely represent a relief rally within a broader downtrend.
Ivan argued that Bitcoin would travel back down towards the $50,000 region if macro and technical weakness persists.
Bulls Push Back
Bullish voices were quick to challenge the bearish outlook.
Famed Investor Mike Alfred responded directly: “You’re going to be wrong this time. Sorry buddy.”
Alfred has repeatedly argued that the current market structure does not resemble a typical crypto bear cycle.
You can't have a real bear market and crypto winter without an actual bull market. Until you see real unadulterated exuberance, no bear. Simple stuff but so many people got fooled this time. Pure devastation. They will be chasing hard in the coming months as everything rips.
In a separate post, he said: “You can’t have a real bear market and crypto winter without an actual bull market. Until you see real unadulterated exuberance, no bear.”
He added that many investors have been “fooled” and warned they may be “chasing hard in the coming months as everything rips.”
I'm beginning to think we're on the cusp of the largest BTC price squeeze of all time.
Similarly, market participant Joe Burnett suggested the market may be on the verge of a sharp upside move, writing:
“I’m beginning to think we’re on the cusp of the largest BTC price squeeze of all time.”
Broader Bearish Bitcoin Price Views Remain
Not all skeptics are focused on short-term price action.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone reiterated a longer-term bearish thesis, suggesting Bitcoin could eventually retrace much lower.
“My bias is the crypto bust may be just beginning,” McGlone wrote, pointing to Bitcoin’s performance relative to traditional assets since the launch of spot ETFs in early 2024.
He highlighted that the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has delivered roughly similar returns to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), but with about four times the volatility and a relatively high correlation of around 0.5.
High Risk, Correlation, Poor Performance – Bitcoin, IBIT
The crypto bear market may be in its early days if performance since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024 is a guide. My graphic shows the flat total return of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) vs. the State… pic.twitter.com/ArmKGr8mI4
“High volatility and correlation, absent superior returns, typically top the list of things to avoid in proper diversification,” he said.
McGlone has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin could revisit $10,000.
“There was one in 2009 — Bitcoin — and now there are millions, most tracking little of substance yet still valued in the billions,” he wrote.
Adding: “Bitcoin may revisit $10,000, especially if beta declines.”
Geopolitics and Short Squeeze Drive Bitcoin Price Higher
Despite bearish warnings, Bitcoin’s price has rallied sharply, rising about 5.8% in 24 hours to around $74,770, according to market data.
The move was largely driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions after a reported blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a wave of liquidations in bearish positions.
More than $224 million in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated over a 24-hour period, amplifying the rally.
Institutional demand has also provided support with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $786 million in net inflows in the past week.
The asset is also showing strong macro linkages, with correlations of roughly 93% to both the S&P 500 and gold, suggesting the rally is being driven by broader risk.
Downside Bitcoin Price Risks Remain
Some analysts caution that risks remain tilted in both directions.
Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, noted that Bitcoin still faces a significant cluster of long liquidations below current levels.
“According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has a massive long liquidation buildup below the current price,” he said, adding that “a huge cluster of longs will get forced out if Bitcoin’s price keeps falling, specifically below $67,000.”
At the same time, he noted that much of the downside liquidity has already cleared, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains higher in the near term.
However, Olanrewaju warned that once Bitcoin moves through dense liquidity zones, market dynamics can shift quickly.
“Should the U.S. force the closure [of the Strait of Hormuz], BTC price could slide much lower than $70,000,” he said.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains below key resistance near $75,700, leaving the broader structure vulnerable.
Failure to sustain current levels could see the price drift back toward the $60,000 region in a more bearish scenario, Olanrewaju said.
Fund Inflows Signal Confidence
The latest surge in Bitcoin’s price has coincided with a sharp rebound in institutional demand, with digital asset investment products attracting $1.1 billion in inflows last week, according to CoinShares.
The figure marks the largest weekly inflow since early January and points to renewed investor confidence.
Bitcoin accounted for the bulk of the flows, drawing $871 million and reinforcing its position as the primary vehicle for institutional exposure.
The data aligns with the recent price climb toward the $70,000–$75,000 range, suggesting that fresh capital is helping underpin the rally.
However, the inflow data also underscores persistent risks beneath the surface.
Short-Bitcoin products recorded $20.2 million in inflows—their highest weekly level since November 2024—indicating that some investors are actively hedging against a potential reversal even as prices rise.
Regionally, the United States dominated activity, accounting for roughly $1.06 billion, or 95% of total inflows, driven largely by continued demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Europe saw more modest participation, with Germany and Switzerland posting smaller gains.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
